Goldman Sachs has cut its third-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) to 435,000 vehicles. Analyst Mark Delaney reduced the estimate from 490,000 while maintaining a Neutral rating and a $360 price target.

The new forecast sits below the Visible Alpha consensus of 456,000. It also diverges sharply from prediction market data. Yes shares on Kalshi for Tesla topping 480,000 deliveries traded at 57 cents Thursday. This pricing places the market midpoint at least 45,000 vehicles above Goldman’s call.

Prediction Market Divergence

The split between Goldman and Kalshi mirrors the previous quarter. In June, Delaney raised Goldman’s Q2 estimate to 420,000. By late June, the company-compiled analyst consensus stood at 406,024.

Hours before Tesla reported on July 2, Kalshi gave Tesla a 66% chance of topping 475,000 deliveries and a 56% chance of topping 480,000. Tesla ultimately delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2. This result aligned with Kalshi’s odds but exceeded Goldman’s June estimate by more than 60,000 units and the broader consensus by roughly 74,000 units.

Regional Sales Pressure

Goldman’s revised forecast follows weaker-than-expected sales across key markets:

• United States: Estimated August sales fell 26% year-over-year to 40,816 vehicles from 55,500 a year earlier. The prior-year figure was inflated by buyers rushing to claim the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before its September 30 expiration.
• China: Retail sales declined 12.4% year-over-year to 50,047 vehicles in August.

Inventory and Production Dynamics

Q2’s strong delivery tally benefited from an inventory drawdown. Tesla delivered about 28,000 more vehicles than it produced during that period. Matching that result may require higher production or another drawdown.

Goldman notes one potential offset: export markets supplied by Tesla’s Shanghai factory are growing. This growth could partly cushion weakness in the US, China, and Europe.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Goldman’s 435,000 forecast and Kalshi’s ~480,000 midpoint highlights a stark disagreement on near-term momentum. Goldman implies a meaningful drop from Q2’s 480,126 deliveries. Kalshi traders remain centered roughly in line with last quarter’s result. Tesla has not announced its Q3 delivery date. Its second-quarter tally arrived two days after the quarter ended.

Maye Musk has publicly challenged the narrative of predominantly negative media coverage surrounding her son, Elon Musk, and Tesla over the past two decades. She highlighted a disconnect between press reports and the gratitude she receives from individuals regarding Musk’s companies.

The model and author responded to recent coverage by The Hollywood Reporter concerning filmmaker Alex Gibney’s upcoming documentary about Musk. The report included a description from a former colleague who called Musk "the most miserable man I’ve ever met."

Maye Musk Points To The Disconnect

Maye Musk disputed the characterization on X, stating she has not seen her son as miserable. She noted that while the media has focused on negative aspects for 20 years, people regularly thank her for the impact of Musk’s companies.

She questioned whether the public believes the media narrative, pointing to the contrast between headlines and personal interactions. Actor James Woods joined the exchange in support of Maye and Elon Musk.

Tesla’s Headlines Have Covered Plenty Of Ground

The criticism surrounding Tesla has spanned multiple areas, including vehicle safety investigations, recalls, software concerns, and financial results. Musk’s activities on X and political involvement have also generated significant controversy.

Tesla has faced scrutiny over Autopilot, Full Self-Driving capabilities, and production issues. Despite this, the company’s transformation of the electric vehicle market and SpaceX’s achievements have produced substantial positive coverage.

A Different Kind Of Investment Conversation

The exchange underscores how headlines can shape market sentiment independent of underlying business performance. Musk’s public profile continues to dominate news cycles for reasons often unrelated to vehicle performance or operational metrics.

Maye Musk directed followers to her upcoming book, Timeless, where she discusses these themes further. The situation illustrates the gap between public perception driven by media and the private experiences reported by those close to the Musk family.