Elon Musk has reignited speculation about a potential merger between Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX), citing deep collaboration between the two entities he leads.

During a Monday appearance on the All In Podcast with SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, Musk addressed questions regarding a possible combination. "With all this collaboration on so many levels, imagine what action one might take when there's so much close collaboration in so many areas," Musk said.

Market Pricing and Compensation Implications

Bettors on the prediction market platform Kalshi have priced in significant probability for the deal. The platform shows a 66% chance that the two companies will merge before 2028. Additionally, there is a 47% chance the merger occurs before May next year.

The comments arrive as Musk faces potential massive financial upside from such a transaction. Under the new Tesla CEO compensation award approved by investors in November 2025, Musk's compensation would be determined solely by factors like market capitalization if Tesla were to merge or be acquired. Analysts estimate this could result in an $824 billion payday for Musk.

Investor Perspectives

Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki stated that a merged entity would become a "must-have" investment for global investors. However, Gerber warned that the deal structure might not benefit existing shareholders equally.

In an exclusive conversation with Benzinga, Gerber noted that while the combined company would be attractive, the merger would not be a great investment for current Tesla investors and would be dilutive for SpaceX investors.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence in market pricing highlights uncertainty around the timeline. While long-term confidence is high with a 66% probability for a pre-2028 merger, the shorter-term outlook is less certain, with only a 47% chance of completion by May next year. This gap suggests market participants view the regulatory or structural hurdles as significant enough to delay a near-term closure.

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has registered a local subsidiary in Vietnam, marking its entry into the Southeast Asian market as competition intensifies in neighboring China.

Tesla Motors Vietnam was registered in Ho Chi Minh City on Sept. 11 with roughly $3 million in charter capital. The entity is authorized to import, distribute and sell vehicles, though Tesla has not disclosed when sales will begin or where it plans to source cars for the market.

China Market Pressure

The expansion comes as Tesla’s dominance in China wanes. Its share of China’s battery-electric vehicle market fell to 6.6% in the second quarter from more than 15% in 2020.

Retail sales data for August highlights this divergence:

While retail demand softened, Tesla’s Shanghai factory sold 86,166 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in August, including exports. This represents a 3.6% increase from a year earlier, following a 38% jump in July. For the first time, more than half of Shanghai production was exported during the second quarter.

Competitive Landscape in Vietnam

Vietnam presents a growth opportunity but features a dominant domestic competitor. VinFast Auto Ltd. (NASDAQ: VFS), founded by billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong’s Vingroup, stopped producing gasoline-powered vehicles in 2022 to focus entirely on EVs.

VinFast has built an extensive charging network across the country. According to an SEC filing:

• VinFast delivered 20,161 EVs in Vietnam in August.
• Preliminary domestic deliveries reached 154,073 through the first eight months of 2026.

Reuters described Vietnam as one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing EV markets. Chinese manufacturers, including BYD, are also expanding across the region.

Delivery Expectations

Market sentiment on Tesla’s near-term global performance remains cautious. Kalshi traders currently assign a 55% chance to Tesla topping 490,000 deliveries in the third quarter, but only a 42% chance of exceeding 495,000.

Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025. With traders assigning less than even odds to deliveries topping 495,000 this quarter, the market leans toward a year-over-year decline despite expecting improvement from the second quarter’s 480,126 deliveries.