Major cryptocurrencies rallied over 1% on Wednesday, driven by continued strength in equity markets and significant institutional interest. Bitcoin (BTC) held firm at $64,717, while Ethereum (ETH) climbed to $1,914, marking a 2% gain. The rally was underpinned by robust inflows into regulated investment vehicles, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $211.5 million on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue data. Spot Ethereum ETFs also attracted capital, seeing net inflows of $53.8 million during the same period.

Despite the broader market uptick, performance varied significantly across digital assets. XRP traded at $1.06 and Dogecoin at $0.06995, both failing to match the momentum of larger-cap coins. Solana (SOL) stood at $74.12, while Shiba Inu (SHIB) remained flat at $0.000004907. The divergence highlights selective investor appetite, with capital favoring established assets over speculative altcoins amid ongoing market volatility.

Market sentiment remains cautious yet optimistic, with traders closely monitoring technical indicators and regulatory developments. Coinglass data revealed that 69,958 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling $216.18 million in losses. This high level of liquidation suggests significant leverage in the market, which can amplify both gains and losses during periods of price fluctuation. Top gainers in the last 24 hours included Pump.fun, Uniswap, and Zcash, indicating pockets of strength in decentralized finance and privacy-focused projects.

Technical Outlook and Analyst Views

Chart analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin has triggered a bullish SuperTrend buy signal, a technical indicator that previously preceded a 16% rally from $57,700 to $68,900 after its last activation on July 3. Trader Crypto Bitlord echoed this optimism, suggesting Bitcoin is poised for a sharp upside breakout after breaking key 4-hour resistance levels. He described the market as overdue for a large bullish “god candle” following an extended period without strong vertical rallies.

Conversely, Jesse Olson maintains that Bitcoin remains in a bear market but believes the cycle is approaching a turning point. Based on his model, October could mark the market bottom, potentially initiating a 45-month bull run that could drive Bitcoin above $180,000. These conflicting views underscore the uncertainty surrounding crypto markets, where technical signals often clash with broader macroeconomic trends.

What the Numbers Show

The disparity between ETF inflows and altcoin performance reveals a shift toward risk-averse institutional investing. While retail traders may chase high-volatility assets like Dogecoin or Shiba Inu, institutional capital appears to be flowing primarily into Bitcoin and Ethereum via regulated ETF products. This trend supports the narrative of crypto maturation, where traditional finance mechanisms increasingly dictate price action for major assets. However, the high liquidation rate warns that leveraged positions remain vulnerable to sudden reversals, limiting the sustainability of short-term rallies unless accompanied by sustained volume growth.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has failed to participate in the S&P 500’s climb to fresh all-time highs, with analysts warning that historical midterm-year patterns could still produce a late-summer or fall equity correction that drags cryptocurrency prices lower. While U.S. equities continue to set records, experts caution that the divergence in performance may signal an impending risk-off environment for digital assets later this year.

Fed Policy and Market Timing

In a podcast on Aug. 5, analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that the S&P 500’s advance to roughly 7,750 remains consistent with previous U.S. midterm election years. Historically, equities have continued setting records through August or September before entering meaningful corrections. Cowen believes the stock market could remain bullish for several more weeks but expects the risk of a correction to increase from mid-August through September.

The Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 meeting is highlighted as a possible catalyst for such a shift. A rate hike could pressure risk assets by signaling the end of the previous easing cycle. Conversely, keeping rates unchanged could create volatility if inflation remains elevated and long-term Treasury yields continue climbing. Continued strength in the U.S. dollar could also create additional headwinds for stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Cycle Dynamics

Cowen is primarily watching the S&P 500 to estimate when Bitcoin could establish its market-cycle bottom. He noted that Bitcoin historically reached its final bear-market low during the second major equity correction of previous midterm years. In 2018, Bitcoin held support near $6,000 for most of the year but broke down after the stock market entered its second correction, eventually falling roughly 48% even though the S&P 500 traded only moderately below its earlier yearly low.

Cowen believes a similar, though potentially less volatile, structure could be developing in 2026. A deeper S&P 500 decline could force Bitcoin to lose its support around $60,000 and establish a final cycle low later this year.

Technical Outlook for Crypto Assets

Analyst Trader Mayne argued in a separate podcast that crypto’s next bull market has not yet been confirmed, despite improving risk sentiment and record equity prices. Bitcoin has remained inside an approximately $10,000 range for nearly two months and continues to test a descending trendline.

A decisive breakout could send BTC toward $67,000 to $70,000. However, Mayne wants to see a sustained high-timeframe close above those levels before treating the move as a genuine trend reversal. Failure to break the downtrend could return Bitcoin to range lows. Even a 20% to 30% rally would not necessarily confirm that the bottom is in, as the move could still establish another lower high before a final decline. Mayne expects investors may receive additional opportunities to accumulate BTC during September and October, consistent with his interpretation of the four-year cycle.

What the Numbers Show

The lack of sustained progress among major cryptocurrencies contrasts sharply with U.S. equities reaching record highs. This divergence suggests that traditional risk-on sentiment is not uniformly translating into crypto asset appreciation. The persistence of Bitcoin within a narrow $10,000 range while equities hit new peaks indicates that crypto markets are currently decoupled from broader equity momentum, waiting for confirmation of a trend reversal rather than participating in speculative rallies.