Crypto analyst Doctor Profit argues that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be entering the final phase of its bear market, suggesting that widespread expectations for a price drop to $40,000 are likely exaggerated. In his "Sunday Report," the analyst outlined three distinct market camps: those expecting a bottom between $40,000 and $50,000; those who believe the bottom has already been reached; and a smaller group anticipating a decline to $28,000-$33,000. He noted that the largest group now favors the $40,000-$50,000 range—a view he originally held near $120,000 but has since revised. The stakes for investors lie in timing entry points before broader trend reversals are recognized, with consensus targets often losing effectiveness once widely adopted.

Market Structure and Accumulation Strategy

Doctor Profit identifies the $54,000-$64,000 range as the critical accumulation zone for long-term positions. Within this band, he has initiated dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), deploying capital in 5% increments. Despite this active accumulation strategy, he emphasized that Bitcoin has not yet entered a new bull market. Instead, he characterizes the current environment as the concluding stage of a bear cycle, where optimal investment opportunities typically emerge ahead of broader market recognition of a trend reversal.

Strategy Sales as Liquidity Opportunity

Addressing reports that Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor could sell up to $5 billion worth of BTC, Doctor Profit reframed potential large-scale selling as a strategic advantage rather than a bearish signal. He argued that forced selling from a major holder could generate additional liquidity for long-term buyers. "If Saylor's $5 billion hits the market inside my zone, I welcome it," he stated, noting that any additional weakness within the $54,000-$64,000 range would improve his average entry price. This perspective suggests that institutional liquidity events may serve as catalysts for retail accumulation during late-stage bear markets.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between consensus expectations and the analyst's accumulation strategy highlights a key dynamic in crypto markets: widely adopted price targets often fail to materialize precisely because they become self-defeating. With the majority expecting a $40,000-$50,000 bottom, the actual support level may remain higher, within the $54,000-$64,000 range where buying pressure is currently building. This disconnect suggests that market participants relying solely on consensus forecasts may miss early entry opportunities in the final bear market phase.

Market commentator Scott Melker argues that Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) prolonged consolidation around $60,000 may represent a bottoming phase, driven by shifting market structure and technical signals. In a podcast on July 31, Melker highlighted that despite significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and forced selling by major entities, the asset has found support, suggesting a transfer of ownership from short-term retail investors to long-term holders.

Technical Indicators Signal Support

Melker pointed to several technical factors resembling conditions seen near previous cycle lows. Bitcoin recently traded approximately 10% above its July low near $58,000, while investor sentiment remained in the fear zone. Key technical signals include a deeply oversold weekly relative strength index, a bullish divergence, and a recovery above the 200-week moving average. Additionally, the asset bounced near its 50-month moving average, a level historically associated with major accumulation zones.

However, Melker cautioned that Bitcoin has not yet reclaimed key resistance levels and could still revisit the lower end of its trading range.

Forced Sellers Exit the Market

A central theme of Melker’s analysis is the exhaustion of forced sellers. Several digital asset treasury companies, which were previously expected to support prices, have instead liquidated holdings or abandoned accumulation strategies following collapses in their stock premiums.

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, recently sold Bitcoin to increase cash reserves and manage preferred-stock obligations. Similarly, Bitcoin miners have sold holdings to redirect capital toward AI infrastructure. Despite these entities stepping away as buyers or becoming sellers, BTC prices have remained relatively stable.

"Every supposed buyer of last resort became a forced seller, and Bitcoin is still here," Melker said.

Whale Accumulation vs. Retail Capitulation

The current market dynamic appears characterized by a shift in supply from short-term traders to long-term holders. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant outflows during the correction as retail investors rotated capital into AI and semiconductor stocks. Conversely, large Bitcoin holders have reportedly resumed accumulating near the $60,000 region after selling into the rally toward Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high near $126,000.

Falling exchange reserves further suggest that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin into self-custody rather than preparing to sell, reinforcing the view that supply is moving toward longer-term storage.

Key Market Data Points

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between retail behavior and whale activity suggests a structural change in demand. While retail investors exited via ETF outflows, large holders accumulated near $60,000. This transfer of supply, combined with falling exchange reserves, indicates that the selling pressure from forced entities like Strategy and miners has been absorbed by long-term holders, potentially establishing a floor for prices despite the absence of new retail inflows.