Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching critical technical levels that analysts say could determine whether recent price consolidation develops into a broader recovery. Technical analyst Nik noted on Monday that Bitcoin is tightly range-bound between its 200-week moving average near $62,500 and resistance around $65,800. Simultaneously, Ethereum has broken above its long-term descending trendline and is consolidating beneath anchored VWAP resistance around $1,973. The stakes for investors hinge on whether these assets can sustain closes above these key resistance zones to confirm cyclical bottoms.

Bitcoin’s weekly structure remains bearish, but momentum is improving following a bullish divergence at the June low. The asset has held above its February low near $60,000 for more than six months, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. A weekly close below the immediate downside level of $62,500 would put $60,000 back into focus. Conversely, a weekly close above the anchored VWAP from May highs, around $67,600, could provide stronger confirmation of a durable bottom, potentially clearing the way for a move toward $80,000 closer to Q4.

Ethereum shows a similarly constructive setup after successfully retesting its broken descending trendline as support. A weekly rejection followed by a break below $1,750 would invalidate the improving structure and increase the probability of another test of $1,500. However, a close above $1,973 followed by acceptance above $2,000 could indicate that ETH’s capitulation phase is over. That scenario would put the $2,400-$2,500 region into focus over the following weeks, with the 200-week moving average providing major resistance around $2,500.

On-chain activity supports the bullish technical case for both assets. Data from Santiment posted on Aug. 11 shows the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC rebounded to a six-month high of 90, marking a 7.1% increase after adding six wallets over the past eight weeks. This shift toward stronger hands occurs as smaller wallet holdings decline in August amid retail fear surrounding Coldcard hacks and delays to the CLARITY Act. Santiment views this concentration as increasing the probability that Bitcoin’s next major market fluctuation favors the upside.

Ethereum’s improving price structure is accompanied by a notable jump in blockchain activity. Santiment reported 989,500 active Ethereum addresses over 24 hours on Aug. 10, the network’s highest daily activity since March. Ethereum could benefit from improving spot ETF demand, growing Robinhood Chain activity, and rising institutional interest in stablecoins, real-world assets, and tokenization. Lower transaction costs and expanding Layer-2 capacity may also encourage existing users and capital to return to the ecosystem.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between retail and institutional behavior is evident in the on-chain data. While retail holdings declined due to security concerns and regulatory delays, large-holder wallets increased by 7.1% to reach a six-month high. This accumulation by "strong hands" alongside record-high daily active addresses on Ethereum suggests underlying demand is strengthening despite surface-level volatility.

Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, stated on Monday that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is positioned to perform well over the long term if authorities continue expanding the money supply. Speaking on Fox Business, Pompliano characterized policymakers in Washington, D.C., as "absolutely ridiculous" for their monetary expansion strategies, asserting that betting on their continued printing of money is a wager he is willing to take. He noted that sustained money supply growth would likely lift not only Bitcoin but also gold, real estate, and stocks.

The Thesis: Money Supply vs. Asset Prices

Pompliano’s argument rests on the premise that fiat currency debasement drives asset prices higher. He described Bitcoin as a defensive asset against monetary expansion, contrasting it with artificial intelligence, which he termed an offensive technology. In a post on X on August 10, 2026, he summarized this view by stating, "AI is offense, bitcoin is defense," adding that Bitcoin serves as the best defense against the "money printer."

The CEO highlighted that Bitcoin has historically compounded at an annual growth rate of more than 60%. He suggested that if governments maintain or accelerate their pace of money printing over the next decade, significant price appreciation remains possible, stating that "nothing is off the table."

Market Context and Contrarian Views

While Pompliano’s thesis aligns with historical data linking Bitcoin’s price growth to global money supply, recent market dynamics show a divergence. Data from Coinglass indicates that during the current bear market, the traditional correlation has broken down, with rising money supply failing to immediately translate into rising Bitcoin prices. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $63,981.03, down 1.52% in the last 24 hours.

Pompliano also addressed Strategy Inc. founder Michael Saylor’s prediction that Bitcoin could gain 30% annually for the next 20 years. Pompliano cautioned that 20 years is a long horizon, citing the rapid evolution of AI as evidence of how much can change over such a period. However, he maintained his bullish stance, noting last month that Bitcoin does not require the CLARITY Act to reach new all-time highs due to its existing regulatory clarity.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Pompliano’s long-term structural argument and short-term price action highlights a key tension in the current market. While the macroeconomic driver (money supply) remains active, the asset’s price has not yet responded, suggesting a temporary decoupling. This contrasts with bearish outlooks from analysts like Alessio Rastani, who warned of a potential multi-year bear market starting in 2027. Pompliano’s view relies on the eventual re-coupling of these variables, betting that monetary policy will ultimately override short-term sentiment cycles.