Bitcoin faces a potential multi-year bear market beginning in 2027, with renowned market analyst Alessio Rastani warning that the cryptocurrency could crash to between $20,000 and $25,000. In an interview with Cointelegraph on Aug. 6, Rastani outlined a scenario where Bitcoin stages a temporary rally over the next three to six months before undergoing a significant correction. This forecast challenges shorter-term bullish narratives, emphasizing that a deep drawdown is necessary to establish the foundation for Bitcoin’s eventual rise to $1 million, which Rastani believes is achievable only over the next 10 to 20 years.

The analyst’s thesis draws partly on Elliott Wave analysis from veteran market forecaster Robert Prechter, who suggests Bitcoin completed a five-wave advance around its $126,000 all-time high. Under this theory, such a completion can precede a larger correction toward previous support regions. While Prechter’s interpretation points to an extreme downside target of $3,500 — corresponding with Bitcoin’s 2018 bear-market lows — Rastani describes this as overly pessimistic. "I’m less bearish than Bob," Rastani stated, positioning the $20,000-$25,000 range as a more realistic downside target by the end of 2027.

Short-term support levels

Despite the bearish medium-term outlook, Rastani indicates that Bitcoin is not necessarily headed straight down immediately. He notes that BTC is currently holding around a key 21-period quarterly exponential moving average (EMA), which may provide the foundation for another short-to-medium-term recovery. However, the critical downside level to watch is approximately $57,000.

"If Bitcoin drops below $57,000 in the next few months, then brace for impact," Rastani said. A breakdown below this level could open the door to the next support zone around $47,000-$49,000, which corresponds with the 34-period quarterly EMA. For now, however, he expects support to hold and believes Bitcoin could bounce before the larger bearish structure develops.

Long-term path to $1 million

Rastani remains bullish on Bitcoin over a much longer horizon but considers forecasts calling for a $1 million price tag by 2030 highly improbable. Instead, he views the milestone as achievable over the next 10 to 20 years, contingent on a severe intermediate correction. "Before we get to a million, we need to see Bitcoin dropping at least to $20,000 and probably even below $20,000 to $16,000 and maybe even close to $10,000," he said.

Only after such a correction, Rastani argues, would the foundation be in place for Bitcoin’s longer-term march toward $300,000 and eventually $1 million. This perspective highlights a divergence between short-term technical indicators, which suggest potential recovery, and long-term structural theories that demand a substantial reset in valuation before new highs are sustainable.

What the Numbers Show

The analysis reveals a stark contrast between immediate technical support and long-term theoretical targets. While Bitcoin holds above the 21-period quarterly EMA, suggesting near-term stability, the reliance on Elliott Wave theory implies that the current price action may be part of a larger corrective phase rather than a sustained bull run. The gap between the critical support level of $57,000 and the projected 2027 low of $20,000 represents a potential decline of more than 65%, underscoring the severity of the anticipated bear market. Investors monitoring these levels must weigh the possibility of a short-term bounce against the risk of a multi-year downward trend.

Bitcoin fell 2%, breaking below key technical levels as Strategy sold 1,690 BTC and traders braced for critical inflation data this week. The broader cryptocurrency market mirrored this weakness, with Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin sliding in tandem. Despite the price decline, institutional interest remained evident, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $98.9 million on Friday, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $49.6 million.

Market Performance

Major cryptocurrencies faced downward pressure across the board. Bitcoin traded at $63,902.40, while Ethereum dropped to $1,871.90. Solana fell to $75.94, and XRP declined to $1.01. Meme coins also struggled, with Dogecoin trading at $0.06964 and Shiba Inu at $0.000004628.

Liquidations and Losers

Volatility triggered significant losses for leveraged positions. Data from Coinglass shows that 75,626 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for a total of $212.97 million. Among the top losers in the same period were Audiera, Algorand, and Bitcoin SV.

Analyst Perspectives

Trader KillaXBT noted that Bitcoin local tops and bottoms often form after multiple liquidity sweeps, where price triggers stops and traps traders before reclaiming the range. The analyst argues these deviations typically occur when conviction is weakest, causing traders to react late and position in the wrong direction.

Full-time trader Justin Bennett predicts Bitcoin needs a sustained break above $65,400 to open a move toward $67,300-$69,000. He expects a relief rally to sweep July highs before potentially setting up the next leg lower in September.

Corporate Activity

Strategy’s sale of 1,690 BTC coincided with MicroStrategy rejecting the $105 level for the third time. Meanwhile, Bitmine bought 7,391 ETH for $14.3 million, even as its stock (BMNR) dropped 2%. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that crypto does not get enough credit for unlocking global financial access with stablecoins, DeFi, and Bitcoin.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between retail liquidations and institutional inflows highlights a split market sentiment. While 75,626 traders lost $212.97 million in liquidations, the simultaneous $98.9 million inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests long-term holders are accumulating during dips, betting on the upcoming inflation data to drive prices higher.