CoinEx Research reported that Bitcoin and Ether advanced during July 2026, defying a sharp correction in AI-related equities and testing market correlations between digital assets and technology stocks. Bitcoin gained 7.4% to close at approximately $62,900, while Ether rose 18.7% to $1,860. This performance occurred against the backdrop of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declining 20.6%, driven by higher long-term interest rates that prompted investors to reassess valuations across the AI infrastructure sector. The divergence suggests that crypto selling pressure had eased, though CoinEx Research cautioned that available data did not yet confirm a durable return of institutional demand.

The recovery was supported by stabilizing ETF flows and improved market positioning, although the scale of inflows remained modest compared to previous periods of strong institutional participation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $173 million in net inflows across 22 trading days in July. This marked the first positive month since April and represented a significant improvement from June, when ETFs experienced a record $4.5 billion in net outflows. CoinEx Research characterized the July rally as a mean-reversion move from heavily reduced positioning rather than evidence that crypto had fully decoupled from broader macroeconomic conditions.

Long-term Treasury yields tightened financial conditions despite the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping its target rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 29 meeting. Three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point rate increase, marking the first unified three-way hawkish dissent since September 2016. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.24%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield ended July near 4.75%. CoinEx Research identified the gap between a stable policy rate and rising long-term yields as a key macroeconomic risk entering August, noting that the bond market continued to tighten financial conditions independently of Fed policy.

In the corporate sector, semiconductor stocks faced sharp repricing as investors differentiated between companies demonstrating visible revenue from AI infrastructure and those relying on distant expected returns. Microsoft and Amazon outperformed after reporting growth in Azure and AWS, while Alphabet, Meta and Apple faced greater pressure. Meanwhile, crypto infrastructure expanded with Visa launching its Stablecoin Platform, allowing participating banks and fintech companies to issue and redeem stablecoins through Visa-managed infrastructure. The platform initially supports Open USD, developed by the Open Standard consortium, which proposes returning a larger share of reserve income to distribution partners.

What the Numbers Show

The data reveals a decoupling of speculative sentiment from fundamental liquidity trends. While Bitcoin’s price recovered, stablecoin supply recorded a net outflow of $3.4 billion in July, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. However, the pace of decline slowed by approximately 40% from June’s $5.5 billion outflow. This deceleration, combined with positive ETF flows, suggests that liquidity conditions improved without fully reversing the defensive trend established earlier in the year. Robinhood Chain processed $16.96 billion in decentralized exchange volume, but only $562.4 million, or approximately 3.32%, accounted for real-world asset trading. This indicates that speculative assets remain the primary growth driver on new networks, highlighting a dependency on retail speculation rather than institutional adoption of tokenized securities.

Looking ahead, CoinEx Research remains cautiously constructive, identifying several indicators for August. Key factors include whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows increase from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, whether the 30-year Treasury yield remains above 5%, and whether stablecoin supply returns to net growth. The report also noted NEAR may be approaching the final stage of its technical correction, with increased fee capture and the introduction of the NIST-compliant ML-DSA-65 post-quantum signature scheme supporting its longer-term infrastructure proposition. Ultimately, the next phase of the market will depend on whether resilience is supported by stronger capital inflows rather than simply the absence of additional selling.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci countered actor Ben McKenzie’s public celebration of the CLARITY Act’s failure to pass in the Senate, asserting that the legislative setback does not threaten the trajectory of Bitcoin. The exchange highlights the deepening political divide over cryptocurrency regulation as the Senate adjourned for its August recess without voting on the bill. While McKenzie framed the delay as a victory against perceived corruption, Scaramucci emphasized the asset’s structural resilience, noting that regulatory hurdles cannot halt Bitcoin’s adoption.

McKenzie, a vocal critic of cryptocurrency, celebrated the outcome by stating it was a win for Americans "sick of Trump’s crypto corruption." He criticized the bill for lacking ethics provisions to prevent elected officials from profiting through crypto businesses, citing President Donald Trump’s reported billion-dollar fortune. Scaramucci responded on social media, calling McKenzie’s perspective misguided and reiterating that "nothing stops Bitcoin."

Legislative Stalemate

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish clearer rules for the cryptocurrency industry by shifting primary oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). McKenzie argues this creates a lighter regulatory framework due to the CFTC’s fewer resources. Scaramucci, however, has been critical of both Democrats and Republicans for failing to reach a bipartisan compromise on the vital legislation.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed to set up a key procedural vote when the Senate returns from recess in September. The bill requires 60 votes to advance, meaning all voting Republicans plus at least seven Democrats must support it.

Market Sentiment and Pricing

Market expectations for the bill’s passage have cooled significantly. Polymarket prices the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 21%, down from 40% a month ago. Despite the regulatory uncertainty, Bitcoin showed stability, trading at $65,067.79 at the time of writing, up 0.41% in the last 24 hours according to Benzinga Pro data.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between legislative probability and asset price action suggests that market participants are pricing in regulatory delays without abandoning long-term confidence in Bitcoin. The drop in Polymarket odds from 40% to 21% indicates growing skepticism about immediate legislative success, yet the stable price of Bitcoin implies that investors view the CLARITY Act’s defeat as a procedural hurdle rather than a fundamental threat to the asset class.