Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares traded lower on Monday, falling 3.30% to $359.80, following a reduction in its price target by JPMorgan and growing caution ahead of upcoming production data.

Analyst downgrades and price targets

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta maintained a Neutral rating on the stock while lowering the price target to $415 from $445. This move contrasts with the broader Wall Street consensus, which holds an average price target of $411.37 and an overall Buy rating for Tesla.

Recent analyst actions reflect mixed sentiment:

• StoneX maintained a Buy rating with a $475 target on September 25.
• Goldman Sachs maintained a Neutral rating with a $360 target on September 16.

Delivery estimates signal caution

Pressure on the stock intensified as Cantor Fitzgerald projected soft preliminary third-quarter production and delivery figures. The firm expects Tesla to release these numbers later this week. Cantor’s estimates sit below the broader market consensus, highlighting potential headwinds in volume growth.

Cantor analyst Andres Sheppard maintained an Overweight rating and a $485 price target, framing the outlook as cautiously optimistic despite the conservative delivery forecasts. The firm noted that the Tesla Semi program, with current output near 1,000 trucks weekly, remains a minor component of total vehicle count through year-end. Autonomous trucking was described as a lower priority compared to scaling autonomy across the robotaxi and Cybercab fleets.

What the numbers show

A divergence exists between institutional expectations and current trading levels. While the average Wall Street price target stands at $411.37, the stock is trading at $359.80, suggesting a significant gap between analyst valuations and immediate market sentiment driven by near-term delivery concerns.

Tesla plans to implement an average 4-5% pay raise for employees at its Berlin-Brandenburg Gigafactory, effective October 1. The adjustment introduces a performance-related pay component for a portion of the German workforce.

The wage increase applies to the factory's labor force, marking a significant compensation update for the electric vehicle manufacturer's European operations. The change is scheduled to take effect at the start of the fourth quarter.

Compensation structure changes

The new pay structure includes two distinct elements:

• An average salary increase of 4-5% for eligible workers.
• A performance-related pay component introduced for specific segments of the workforce.

The implementation date is set for October 1, aligning with the beginning of the final quarter of the calendar year.