Vail Resorts Q4 loss forecast widens to $5.25 per share
- Vail Resorts to report Q4 earnings on Sept. 28 with expected loss of $5.25 per share
- Consensus revenue estimate is $273.16 million, up slightly from $271.29 million year ago
- Analysts recently cut price targets at Truist, Barclays, Mizuho, and Morgan Stanley
- Stock fell 1.7% to $137.76 ahead of the release
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE: MTN) will release its fourth-quarter earnings after market close on Monday, Sept. 28. The Broomfield, Colorado-based ski resort operator faces expectations for a widened quarterly loss compared to the same period last year.
Analysts project a loss of $5.25 per share for the quarter, an expansion from the $5.08 per share loss reported in the year-ago period. Revenue consensus stands at $273.16 million, a marginal increase from the $271.29 million logged in the prior year quarter.
Analyst Revisions and Ratings
Recent analyst activity reflects cautious sentiment, with several firms maintaining ratings while adjusting price targets downward. The following table details recent actions by top-rated analysts:
| Analyst Firm | Analyst Name | Rating | Price Target Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Matthew Boss | Neutral | Raised to $126 from $124 | June 9, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Patrick Scholes | Buy | Cut to $195 from $212 | June 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | Underweight | Slashed to $119 from $138 | June 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Ben Chaiken | Outperform | Cut to $191 from $200 | June 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | Equal-Weight | Slashed to $147 from $151 | March 12, 2026 |
JP Morgan’s Matthew Boss, who holds a 66% accuracy rate, was the only analyst among this group to raise his price target, though he maintained a Neutral stance. In contrast, Barclays’ Brandt Montour and Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Grambling significantly reduced their targets.
Recent Performance Context
Vail Resorts shares closed at $137.76 on Thursday, down 1.7%. This follows a third-quarter miss in June, when the company reported earnings of $8.81 per share against Street estimates of $9.20 per share.
What the Numbers Show
The consensus revenue estimate of $273.16 million represents a minimal growth trajectory of less than 1% over the prior year’s $271.29 million. However, the expected EPS loss has widened from $5.08 to $5.25. This divergence suggests that while top-line generation remains relatively flat, cost pressures or seasonal operational dynamics are eroding profitability further than in the previous comparable period.
What specific cost pressures or operational inefficiencies are driving the widened EPS loss despite relatively flat revenue growth?
How might the recent downward revisions in analyst price targets, particularly from Barclays and Morgan Stanley, influence institutional investor sentiment ahead of the earnings call?
Given the previous Q3 earnings miss, will management provide updated guidance for the upcoming ski season that addresses current profitability concerns?
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