Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares rose 2.14% to $154.11 on Thursday as investors focused on the upcoming Sept. 22 Starship mission.

The rally reflects market optimism surrounding SpaceX's operational milestones and broader tailwinds in the space infrastructure sector.

Launch Schedule Drives Momentum

SpaceX successfully executed its USSF-259 mission on Wednesday using a Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 4E in California. The booster landed on a droneship following liftoff.

The company has multiple missions scheduled for the coming days:

Starship Meets Starlink

SpaceX is targeting Sept. 22 for Starship's first attempt to reach Earth orbit, pending regulatory approval. This marks Flight 14, which aims to conduct the vehicle's first orbital flight and deploy initial Starlink V3 satellites.

The mission will deploy 26 third-generation Starlink satellites, making it the first Starship flight to carry an operational payload. TechCrunch noted that this would be the first Starship flight capable of generating revenue for SpaceX's launch business, even though the payload comes from another part of the company.

The spacecraft is expected to complete roughly six orbits over nearly 10 hours before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean. This attempt will test hardware and heatshield upgrades following issues in the previous flight.

Reusability Remains Key Test

SpaceX has not planned a tower catch for either the Starship upper stage or Super Heavy booster on this flight. Instead, both vehicles will splash down, while SpaceX has made additional hardware and software changes to address problems seen during the previous test.

The distinction matters because Starship's eventual value depends on what it enables. More reliable launches could allow SpaceX to deploy satellites faster and at greater scale, supporting the growth of its connectivity business. However, investors should note that reusability at high frequency remains the biggest part of the investment thesis ahead.

Valuation and Defense Sector Tailwinds

Cathie Wood suggested a single Starship mission could eventually be worth close to $1 billion. She noted that annual value could reach trillions if Elon Musk's target of flying the vehicle 10,000 times per year by 2030 is achieved.

Air Force Secretary Troy Meink acknowledged that the Space Force has weapons already positioned in orbit. His comments highlighted an expansion into satellite networks and autonomous defense technology, signaling growing government appetite for space-based capabilities.

What the Numbers Show

The stock price increase of 2.14% occurred alongside specific operational announcements rather than earnings data. The market reaction appears linked to the high-profile nature of the upcoming Starship orbital test and the strategic valuation framework proposed by Cathie Wood, which ties future revenue potential directly to launch frequency targets. The shift toward carrying operational payloads marks a transition from pure development testing to potential revenue generation.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) added approximately $100 billion in market value on Wednesday, lifting its total valuation to roughly $2 trillion. The surge coincides with preparations for Starship Flight 14 and continued passive inflows following its Nasdaq-100 inclusion.

Shares closed at $150.88, up 5.15% from Tuesday’s $143.49 finish. This single-day gain exceeded the entire market capitalization of Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ: RKLB), which stands at about $38.1 billion. SpaceX’s current valuation is now more than two and a half times that of its closest public rival.

Catalysts Behind the Rally

Two primary factors drove the bid. First, SpaceX plans to attempt its first orbital insertion with Starship on Flight 14 as early as Tuesday, Sept. 22. The mission aims to release 26 Starlink V3 satellites and reach an orbit of roughly 275 kilometers. CFO Bret Johnsen stated this will be the rocket’s first revenue-generating flight.

Second, passive demand remains strong after Elon Musk’s company entered the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. J.P. Morgan estimated the index addition could pull in $4.3 billion of passive flows, forcing benchmarked funds to buy shares regularly.

Volatility and Supply Dynamics

The $100 billion jump is consistent with SpaceX’s volatile trading history. Shares debuted at $135 on June 12, jumping 19% to near $2.1 trillion before shedding more than $1 trillion in value through early August. The 52-week range runs from $104.83 to $225.64.

Supply constraints remain a key watchpoint. Lockup restrictions are set to lift through Dec. 8, raising the tradable float to 40% of the company. The remaining 60%, including Musk’s stake, stays locked until mid-2027.

Market Reaction and Valuation Context

Pivotal Research initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $220 target price, citing rapid Starship reuse as a key valuation driver. This target sits about 45% above recent closes. Traders on Polymarket assigned a 92.5% chance to Flight 14 launching by Sept. 30.

Cathie Wood estimated each Starship launch could generate roughly $1 billion in revenue, projecting potential annual revenues of $10 trillion by 2030 if Musk’s goal of 10,000 flights a year is met.

What the Numbers Show

Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, compared to the roughly $4.3 billion value of SpaceX’s NASA lunar contracts. This disparity highlights the immediate financial weight of the satellite internet division. While NASA provides roughly 20% of total revenue, the Starlink segment dominates the top line, suggesting near-term cash flow relies heavily on satellite deployment rather than government exploration milestones.