Motilal Oswal has positioned silver as a key commodity for 2026, setting an ambitious target of ₹3.20 lakh following the metal's exceptional performance in 2025. The domestic brokerage firm believes silver may be entering the early stages of a multi-year commodity supercycle, driven by structural changes in demand and supply dynamics.

Unprecedented 2025 Performance Sets Stage

Silver delivered remarkable returns in 2025, with prices surging from ₹90,000 in April to ₹2.50 lakh by December—representing a 170% rally that positioned it among the most closely tracked assets in global commodity markets. The brokerage notes that this rally unfolded at a pace rarely seen in the commodity space, with momentum building in stages and accelerating in shorter intervals as the year progressed.

The rally was driven by a combination of acute physical tightness, rising industrial usage, falling exchange inventories, and safe-haven demand triggered by geopolitical and monetary uncertainties.

Four Pillars Supporting the Supercycle Framework

Motilal Oswal's supercycle thesis rests on four major structural trends that extend beyond 2025's standalone performance.

Industrial Demand and Energy Transition

Silver's dual nature as both a precious metal and industrial input has become increasingly pronounced. Industrial demand reached new highs in 2025, led by applications in solar photovoltaic installations, electric vehicles, and grid infrastructure projects. The brokerage expects this demand to remain robust as nations accelerate clean energy adoption, providing long-term price support.

Supply Constraints Persist

The supply side faces chronic challenges including underinvestment in mining, declining ore grades, and silver's dependence on by-product extraction from base metals. Exchange inventories reflected this tightness throughout 2025.

ETF Flows and Renewed Investor Interest

Investor participation returned strongly in 2025, with domestic Gold and Silver ETF assets under management jumping over 150% during the year. ETF flows, which had been largely negative in previous years, turned decisively positive in the second half of 2025, signaling renewed investor interest after a prolonged lull.

Currency and Macro Tailwinds

Persistent weakness in the US dollar index, coupled with rupee depreciation, provided dual tailwinds for Indian investors. Geopolitical tensions, shifting central bank policies, and cautious Federal Reserve outlook continued supporting silver's appeal as a portfolio hedge.

2026 Outlook: Front-loaded Strength with Rising Volatility

For 2026, Motilal Oswal maintains a positive view while flagging potential challenges. The firm expects silver's strength to remain front-loaded into the first half of 2026, citing continued policy and currency uncertainty. However, volatility may increase in the second half due to evolving macro conditions, profit booking after the sharp 2025 rally, and global rate actions.

The brokerage believes silver could outperform gold in 2026, supported by an improved economic outlook, greater industrial demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts. Despite potential near-term corrections, strong structural demand and overall uncertainties are expected to limit downside, reinforcing silver's role as a core portfolio hedge in a fragmented global macro landscape.

Gold rates in India experienced a sharp rally on January 10, with strong domestic demand driving prices higher across all categories. The precious metal sector witnessed significant gains despite global market headwinds from a strengthening U.S. dollar, highlighting robust local market sentiment.

Domestic Gold Price Performance

Indian gold markets delivered impressive gains across all purity levels on January 10. The price movements reflected strong end-week demand and positive market sentiment in the domestic market.

The substantial price increases across all gold categories demonstrate the strength of domestic demand, with 24-carat gold leading the rally with the highest absolute gains.

Silver Market Rally

Silver prices mirrored gold's strong performance, delivering even more dramatic percentage gains. The white metal experienced substantial buying interest, resulting in significant price appreciation.

MCX Futures Performance

Multi Commodity Exchange futures showed mixed performance, with gold futures maintaining strength while silver futures faced some pressure. MCX gold futures for February 5 delivery gained 56 points or 0.04% to settle at ₹1,38,875. However, silver futures for March 5 delivery declined 0.29%, losing 723 points to close at ₹2,52,002 per kg.

International Market Dynamics

Global precious metals markets provided support to domestic prices, with spot gold gaining 0.5% to $4,496.09 per ounce as of 01:31 p.m. ET. The international market positioned for approximately 3.9% weekly gains, with bullion having reached a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26. U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 0.9% higher at $4,500.90, while spot silver surged 3.5% to $79.56 per ounce.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

According to Way to Wealth's commodity trend report, gold continues trading near $4,470 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. MCX Gold maintains an uptrend with bullish structure intact, though recent sessions witnessed some profit-taking. The 10 and 20 DEMA lines provide strong support zones, with immediate support placed at 136,440-135,700 levels and resistance at 139,140-140,400. Traders can consider buying near support levels targeting 139,140-140,400, while any close below 135,400 would warrant a review of the current bullish view.