Gold and silver futures opened marginally higher on Friday, providing some relief to investors after a week marked by significant volatility. The precious metals showed resilience despite ongoing pressure from a stronger US dollar and market uncertainties surrounding key economic data releases.

MCX Trading Performance

Domestic futures markets reflected cautious optimism in early trading. The performance of key contracts showed mixed but generally positive momentum:

This modest recovery came after both metals closed lower in the previous session, with gold February futures settling at ₹1,37,742 per 10 grams (down 0.19%) and silver March futures dropping 2.91% to ₹2,43,324 per kilogram on Thursday.

Global Market Dynamics

International precious metals markets displayed mixed signals during early Asian trading. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $4,458.10 per ounce by 0126 GMT, while US gold futures for February delivery edged up 0.2% to $4,467.60 per ounce. The contrasting movements highlighted the ongoing uncertainty in global markets.

The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened by 0.1% to hover around 98.95, limiting bullion's appeal for foreign currency holders. This dollar strength continued to weigh on precious metals pricing, as stronger greenback typically reduces demand for dollar-denominated commodities.

Market Volatility Factors

Several factors contributed to the recent volatility in precious metals markets. The annual rebalancing of Bloomberg's commodity index created additional selling pressure across the sector. More significantly, market sentiment was affected by proposed US tariffs of 500% on BRICS nations for importing Russian crude oil, which triggered panic selling across global financial markets.

Investor attention remained focused on the upcoming release of US non-farm payrolls data, which could significantly influence the metals' near-term trajectory. This employment data serves as a key indicator for Federal Reserve policy decisions and economic health.

Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy

According to Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, price volatility in bullion remains elevated, but key technical levels provide guidance for traders:

Jain advised traders to wait for price stability before initiating fresh positions, emphasizing that long-term fundamentals for bullion remain intact despite near-term volatility.

Physical Gold Prices Across Major Cities

Physical gold markets across India showed varying price levels for both 22-carat and 24-carat gold:

Long-term Market Support

Despite short-term volatility, fundamental support for precious metals remains strong. The Chinese central bank has added 42 metric tonnes of gold since November 2024, marking its 14th consecutive month as a net buyer. This sustained institutional demand reflects ongoing global uncertainty and de-dollarisation trends, providing underlying support for gold prices even amid market fluctuations.

Gold and silver prices declined across major Indian cities on Friday, January 9, as a stronger US dollar and easing safe-haven demand weighed on bullion sentiment. Market participants attributed the weakness to currency movements and global cues, though experts view this as a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal.

Current Market Performance

In the domestic market, precious metals showed mixed signals with both commodities facing downward pressure.

Jateen Trivedi, VP–Research (Commodity and Currency) at LKP Securities, noted that gold on the MCX slipped even as international prices remained relatively steady. He attributed the domestic weakness to rupee volatility pressuring bullion markets, while global signals stayed mixed.

Near-Term Outlook and Volatility Factors

Trivedi expects continued volatility in the coming week, driven by key US economic data releases. The upcoming calendar includes ADP employment numbers and non-farm payrolls, which often influence expectations around interest rates and dollar strength. For the next few sessions, gold is expected to trade in a volatile range of ₹1.35 lakh–₹1.38 lakh per 10 grams.

Silver's Resilient Performance

Despite Friday's softness, silver maintained a stronger undertone compared to gold. A January 2026 outlook by Tata Mutual Fund highlighted silver's exceptional performance, emerging as the top-performing commodity of 2025 with approximately 161.00% year-on-year growth.

Long-Term Market Projections

Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions and President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, remains constructive on precious metals despite short-term corrections. He expects intermittent consolidation after the sharp rally but maintains a positive broader trend outlook.

Kothari's price targets over the next year include:

These projections are supported by expected rate cuts, sustained central-bank buying, and fiscal concerns for gold, while silver benefits from industrial demand and tight supply conditions.

Investment Strategy Recommendations

Experts advise against waiting for perfect entry points, instead recommending staggered or SIP-style investing in precious metals to manage timing risk during volatile phases. They emphasize focusing on fundamentals rather than short-term price movements, noting that persistent inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations continue to strengthen the long-term investment case for precious metals. However, analysts caution that 10.00–15.00% short-term corrections remain possible as part of healthy market retracements.