Silver prices surged significantly last week, with COMEX silver closing at $79.34 per ounce after recording an impressive intraday gain of 5.59% on Friday. The precious white metal demonstrated strong weekly performance, gaining 11.27% from the previous week's close of $71.30 per ounce. On the domestic front, MCX silver rates for March 2026 futures expiry ended around ₹2,52,000 per kg.

Weekly Performance and Market Drivers

The silver rally was primarily attributed to weakness in the US Dollar, which experienced profit-booking activities over the weekend after maintaining strength throughout the week. This currency movement provided the necessary catalyst for precious metals to gain momentum.

Structural Market Shifts Drive Demand

Commodity market experts identify several structural factors contributing to the current upward trend in silver prices. These developments have created significant demand-supply imbalances that continue to support higher price levels.

Key supply disruptions include:

• Export supply disruptions from Peru and Chad due to escalating US-Venezuela conflict
• China's shadow ban on silver exports, effective January 1, 2026
• Rising industrial demand from electric vehicles, solar panels, and electronic goods sectors

Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, highlighted the impact of the US Supreme Court's pending decision on Trump's tariffs. "The US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs was expected on Friday, but the US Supreme Court is set to issue its next round of rulings on 14 January 2026. Market speculation suggests the ruling may go against Donald Trump, potentially alleviating trade war and tariff hike uncertainties."

Price Target Analysis

Market experts remain cautiously optimistic about silver's potential to reach significant psychological levels. For COMEX silver to achieve the $100 target, it must overcome two major resistance levels positioned at $84.00 and $90.00.

Amit Goel emphasized the importance of key support levels, stating that COMEX silver breaking below $70.00 on a closing basis without touching $100.00 would significantly impact bullish sentiment. Similarly, MCX silver has crucial support at ₹2,30,000 per kg.

Technical Outlook and Market Positioning

Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, provided detailed technical analysis: "COMEX Silver is holding firm and comfortably above its short- and medium-term moving averages following a consolidation breakout. The $80–$83 zone may invite intermittent profit-booking; however, a sustained breakout above $83 would likely trigger the next medium-term leg toward $85–$90."

For MCX silver, the technical picture remains equally constructive. "MCX Silver continues to be firmly entrenched in a bullish channel. Sustained strength above ₹2,48,000 to ₹2,50,000 keeps the upside momentum intact. A breakout beyond ₹2,52,000 to ₹2,55,000 could accelerate gains toward ₹2,60,000 to ₹2,70,000," added the Enrich Money expert.

Market Caution and Risk Factors

Despite the bullish outlook, experts maintain that commodity prices may be cooling down and the silver price rally could top out soon. The timeline for potential peak levels is estimated around the end of February, providing a narrow window for achieving the ambitious price targets.

Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, noted that silver prices faced initial pressure due to US Dollar strength but benefited from subsequent profit-booking in the currency, which supported both bullion and base metal prices throughout the week.

Gold and silver prices surged on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) following the release of disappointing US employment data for December. The weaker jobs report has reinforced expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, driving precious metals higher across domestic and international markets.

MCX Precious Metals Performance

Both metals demonstrated strong momentum, with gold and silver posting significant gains after the US jobs data release.

The February gold futures contracts experienced a notable rebound, contributing to a 2.00% rally for the week. Silver prices demonstrated even stronger performance, with March contracts gaining 3.00% to cross the significant ₹2.50 lakh per kilogram threshold.

Silver's Weekly and Monthly Trajectory

Silver has shown remarkable volatility and recovery patterns over recent trading periods. For the current week, MCX silver has gained nearly ₹14,510 per kilogram, while monthly gains have reached ₹15,101. However, this recovery follows a sharp correction in the previous two trading sessions, where silver prices had crashed by ₹14,487, representing a 6.00% decline from Tuesday's closing level of ₹2,58,811 per kilogram.

International Market Dynamics

Global precious metals markets mirrored the domestic strength, with both gold and silver posting solid gains.

International silver demonstrated particularly strong weekly performance, tracking a rise of over 8.60% for the week.

Technical Outlook and Price Levels

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, provided technical analysis for silver's price trajectory. According to the expert, sustained strength above the ₹2,48,000-₹2,50,000 range maintains upside momentum. A breakout beyond ₹2,52,000-₹2,55,000 could accelerate gains toward ₹2,60,000-₹2,70,000. On the downside, a break below ₹2,44,000 would expose support levels in the ₹2,43,000-₹2,38,000 zone, where fresh buying interest is likely to emerge.

US Employment Data Impact

The catalyst for precious metals' rally came from disappointing US labor market data. December nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs, falling short of the 60,000 forecast and below November's downwardly revised 56,000 jobs added. Despite the weaker job creation, the unemployment rate improved to 4.40%, compared with the forecast of 4.50%. Federal Reserve officials continue monitoring employment data closely for guidance on future interest rate decisions, with traders currently expecting two rate cuts in 2026 according to the CME FedWatch tool.