Silver prices staged a dramatic recovery in both domestic and international markets, snapping a two-day losing streak with sharp gains that defied market expectations of continued weakness. The white metal's rebound came as investors weighed geopolitical risks and trade developments against technical factors including commodity index rebalancing and US dollar strength.

MCX Silver Hits ₹2.50 Lakh Mark

Domestic silver futures demonstrated strong momentum on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), with March 5 expiry contracts reaching significant milestones during the trading session.

The contracts successfully breached the psychologically important ₹2.50 lakh per kilogram level, marking a significant technical achievement for the precious metal on domestic exchanges.

International Markets Show Strong Performance

Spot silver prices mirrored the domestic strength, with international markets posting solid gains despite currency headwinds. The metal gained 1.40% to reach $77.96 per ounce, positioning itself for substantial weekly gains.

The weekly performance of over 7% represents a significant turnaround from the previous two-day decline, highlighting the metal's resilience and investor appetite for safe-haven assets.

Key Market Drivers

Five primary factors contributed to silver's strong rebound, creating a confluence of supportive conditions for the precious metal:

• Commodity Index Rebalancing: Institutional rebalancing activities provided technical support
• US Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Monetary policy outlook favored precious metals
• Geopolitical Risk Premium: Safe-haven demand increased amid global uncertainties
• Stronger US Dollar Impact: Dollar strength to one-month highs created mixed pressures
• US-India Trade Deal Negotiations: Ongoing trade discussions influenced market sentiment

Market Outlook Considerations

The silver market's attention has shifted toward upcoming US economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report. Market participants are closely monitoring how employment data might influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and subsequent precious metals demand. The stronger US dollar, which reached one-month highs amid anticipation of Supreme Court decisions on emergency tariff powers, continues to create headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities while geopolitical factors provide offsetting support.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects gold and silver to remain structurally supported throughout 2026, as macro uncertainty, policy shifts, and supply-side constraints continue favouring precious metals. The brokerage's assessment comes through its Commodities Review 2025 & Preview 2026 report, which outlines key factors driving sustained strength in precious metals markets.

Structural Support Factors for Precious Metals

Global markets are entering 2026 amid persistent policy uncertainty, currency volatility, and uneven economic growth patterns. According to the report, this environment increasingly drives investors toward assets with intrinsic value and limited supply response capabilities.

Gold continues drawing support from sustained central bank accumulation, which has evolved into a long-term structural feature rather than a cyclical trend. This steady institutional demand provides a durable price floor and limits downside risk during market correction periods.

Silver's strength stems from fundamentally different drivers, benefiting from prolonged supply deficits and rising structural demand from energy transition and infrastructure development sectors. These demand trends demonstrate reduced sensitivity to short-term economic cycles, lending durability to silver's price outlook.

Evolving Demand Dynamics

The report highlights a significant shift in gold demand patterns, moving away from retail or speculative interest toward institutional participation. Central banks and exchange-traded funds have reshaped market behaviour, reducing gold's reliance on risk-off events while strengthening its role as a strategic allocation across market cycles.

Silver's demand profile continues broadening through industrial usage reaching historically high levels. Key growth drivers include:

• Solar energy deployment expansion
• Accelerating electrification trends
• Emerging technology applications
• Infrastructure development projects

With limited scope for rapid supply expansion, the report expects physical tightness to persist, reinforcing silver's sensitivity to incremental demand growth.

Currency and Financial Flow Impact

Currency movements remain critical amplifiers for domestic precious metal prices. Periods of dollar weakness and emerging market currency depreciation enhance local returns while sustaining investor interest levels.

Rising financial participation, evident through growing ETF holdings, adds market depth and liquidity while improving price discovery mechanisms without undermining structural support factors.

Outlook for 2026

Motilal Oswal Financial Services characterises 2026 as a consolidation phase rather than reversal period for precious metals. While short-term volatility may emerge from policy adjustments or geopolitical developments, underlying demand-supply dynamics remain favourable.

Gold is expected to maintain strategic relevance as both a reserve and portfolio asset, while silver continues benefiting from its dual identity as precious and industrial metal.

The brokerage concludes that precious metals are transitioning from performance-driven trades to structurally supported assets, positioning gold and silver as long-term portfolio stabilisers within a fragmented global macro environment.