Gold prices surged on Friday, capping off a strong weekly performance as investors responded to disappointing US employment data and mounting global uncertainties. The precious metal's rally underscores its continued appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical turbulence.

Gold Performance and Market Drivers

Spot gold climbed 0.5% to reach $4,496.09 per ounce as of 01:31 p.m. ET, positioning the metal for approximately a 3.9% weekly gain. The precious metal had previously touched a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26, demonstrating sustained upward momentum.

US gold futures for February delivery settled 0.9% higher at $4,500.90, reflecting strong institutional interest in the precious metal.

Weak US Employment Data Supports Gold

The December US nonfarm payrolls report provided significant support for gold prices, showing job creation well below market expectations. The data revealed only 50,000 new jobs were added, falling short of the anticipated 60,000 gain. However, the unemployment rate improved to 4.4%, beating forecasts of 4.5%.

"Payrolls are showing us a poor job creation environment. Potentially more (geopolitical tension), somewhat higher oil prices, which are inflationary, uncertainty and an easing Fed - all a combination for precious metals," explained Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

Market participants continued to factor in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, creating a historically favorable environment for gold investment. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making the precious metal more attractive to investors.

Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

Multiple geopolitical developments contributed to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset:

• Intensifying unrest in Iran
• Continued fighting in Russia's war in Ukraine
• US capture of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro
• Washington's renewed signals over taking control of Greenland

These tensions reinforced gold's traditional role as a hedge against global uncertainty and political instability.

Broader Precious Metals Rally

Other precious metals also posted strong performances, reflecting broad-based safe-haven demand across the sector.

Bank of America raised its 2026 average platinum and palladium price forecasts, citing dislocations from trade disputes amid physical market tightness, while China's imports add support.

Market Outlook and Regional Demand

Metals Focus projected gold prices could hit fresh record highs above $5,000 in 2026, citing de-dollarization trends and geopolitical risks as key drivers. However, regional demand patterns showed mixed signals, with retail demand for gold in India remaining subdued due to elevated prices, while gold premiums in China widened.

Uncertainty over tariffs persisted, as the US Supreme Court was not expected to issue a ruling on Friday in a major case testing the legality of sweeping global tariffs, with decisions now expected on January 14.

Silver prices surged significantly last week, with COMEX silver closing at $79.34 per ounce after recording an impressive intraday gain of 5.59% on Friday. The precious white metal demonstrated strong weekly performance, gaining 11.27% from the previous week's close of $71.30 per ounce. On the domestic front, MCX silver rates for March 2026 futures expiry ended around ₹2,52,000 per kg.

Weekly Performance and Market Drivers

The silver rally was primarily attributed to weakness in the US Dollar, which experienced profit-booking activities over the weekend after maintaining strength throughout the week. This currency movement provided the necessary catalyst for precious metals to gain momentum.

Structural Market Shifts Drive Demand

Commodity market experts identify several structural factors contributing to the current upward trend in silver prices. These developments have created significant demand-supply imbalances that continue to support higher price levels.

Key supply disruptions include:

• Export supply disruptions from Peru and Chad due to escalating US-Venezuela conflict
• China's shadow ban on silver exports, effective January 1, 2026
• Rising industrial demand from electric vehicles, solar panels, and electronic goods sectors

Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, highlighted the impact of the US Supreme Court's pending decision on Trump's tariffs. "The US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs was expected on Friday, but the US Supreme Court is set to issue its next round of rulings on 14 January 2026. Market speculation suggests the ruling may go against Donald Trump, potentially alleviating trade war and tariff hike uncertainties."

Price Target Analysis

Market experts remain cautiously optimistic about silver's potential to reach significant psychological levels. For COMEX silver to achieve the $100 target, it must overcome two major resistance levels positioned at $84.00 and $90.00.

Amit Goel emphasized the importance of key support levels, stating that COMEX silver breaking below $70.00 on a closing basis without touching $100.00 would significantly impact bullish sentiment. Similarly, MCX silver has crucial support at ₹2,30,000 per kg.

Technical Outlook and Market Positioning

Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, provided detailed technical analysis: "COMEX Silver is holding firm and comfortably above its short- and medium-term moving averages following a consolidation breakout. The $80–$83 zone may invite intermittent profit-booking; however, a sustained breakout above $83 would likely trigger the next medium-term leg toward $85–$90."

For MCX silver, the technical picture remains equally constructive. "MCX Silver continues to be firmly entrenched in a bullish channel. Sustained strength above ₹2,48,000 to ₹2,50,000 keeps the upside momentum intact. A breakout beyond ₹2,52,000 to ₹2,55,000 could accelerate gains toward ₹2,60,000 to ₹2,70,000," added the Enrich Money expert.

Market Caution and Risk Factors

Despite the bullish outlook, experts maintain that commodity prices may be cooling down and the silver price rally could top out soon. The timeline for potential peak levels is estimated around the end of February, providing a narrow window for achieving the ambitious price targets.

Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, noted that silver prices faced initial pressure due to US Dollar strength but benefited from subsequent profit-booking in the currency, which supported both bullion and base metal prices throughout the week.