Gold prices in India have extended their bullish momentum in 2026, delivering solid returns to investors amid a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and economic concerns. The precious metal's performance reflects growing safe-haven demand as global tensions escalate and recession fears mount.

Strong Price Performance in 2026

MCX gold rates have demonstrated robust growth, climbing from ₹1,35,447 to ₹1,38,875 per 10 gm, representing a 2.50% increase for investors in 2026. Current trading levels show gold quoting at ₹1,38,819 per 10 gm on MCX, consolidating after posting lifetime highs while maintaining an upward trajectory within a well-defined channel.

Key Market Drivers

Geopolitical Tensions: Rising global conflicts have intensified safe-haven demand for gold. The US attacks on Venezuela have worsened geopolitical tensions, while the absence of concrete developments regarding a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war continues to support precious metal demand. Market analysts note that the US-Venezuela conflict signals a potential realignment of global powers, with concerns that China may consider actions regarding Taiwan.

US Economic Concerns: The United States entered 2026 with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, following the lowest monthly pace of job gains outside a recession since 2003. This economic backdrop has triggered speculation about a potential US recession, with experts suggesting that tariff policies may be eroding the US economy's strength.

Technical Analysis and Price Targets

Market experts have identified key technical levels that could determine gold's near-term direction:

For COMEX gold futures, consolidation is occurring around the $4,500-$4,517 per ounce range after testing recent highs. Key support lies near $4,400, while a decisive breakout above $4,600 could open the path toward $4,800-$5,000.

Upcoming Supreme Court Decision

A critical event for gold markets is the anticipated US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, scheduled for January 14, 2026. Originally expected on Friday, the decision has been postponed to Wednesday of next week. Market speculation suggests the ruling may go against the current tariff policies, potentially alleviating uncertainties related to trade wars and tariff hikes.

Investment Outlook

Market experts maintain a positive outlook for gold, citing multiple supportive factors. The overall structure remains favorable, supported by firm global prices, supportive rupee trends, and steady investment flows. The broader trend continues to favor a buy-on-dips strategy, underpinned by safe-haven demand and central bank accumulation patterns.

Analysts predict that gold prices may reach ₹1,45,000 per 10 gm once they break above the current hurdle at ₹1,40,000 per 10 gm, with the combination of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties creating a conducive environment for continued safe-haven demand in the short term.

Motilal Oswal has positioned silver as a key commodity for 2026, setting an ambitious target of ₹3.20 lakh following the metal's exceptional performance in 2025. The domestic brokerage firm believes silver may be entering the early stages of a multi-year commodity supercycle, driven by structural changes in demand and supply dynamics.

Unprecedented 2025 Performance Sets Stage

Silver delivered remarkable returns in 2025, with prices surging from ₹90,000 in April to ₹2.50 lakh by December—representing a 170% rally that positioned it among the most closely tracked assets in global commodity markets. The brokerage notes that this rally unfolded at a pace rarely seen in the commodity space, with momentum building in stages and accelerating in shorter intervals as the year progressed.

The rally was driven by a combination of acute physical tightness, rising industrial usage, falling exchange inventories, and safe-haven demand triggered by geopolitical and monetary uncertainties.

Four Pillars Supporting the Supercycle Framework

Motilal Oswal's supercycle thesis rests on four major structural trends that extend beyond 2025's standalone performance.

Industrial Demand and Energy Transition

Silver's dual nature as both a precious metal and industrial input has become increasingly pronounced. Industrial demand reached new highs in 2025, led by applications in solar photovoltaic installations, electric vehicles, and grid infrastructure projects. The brokerage expects this demand to remain robust as nations accelerate clean energy adoption, providing long-term price support.

Supply Constraints Persist

The supply side faces chronic challenges including underinvestment in mining, declining ore grades, and silver's dependence on by-product extraction from base metals. Exchange inventories reflected this tightness throughout 2025.

ETF Flows and Renewed Investor Interest

Investor participation returned strongly in 2025, with domestic Gold and Silver ETF assets under management jumping over 150% during the year. ETF flows, which had been largely negative in previous years, turned decisively positive in the second half of 2025, signaling renewed investor interest after a prolonged lull.

Currency and Macro Tailwinds

Persistent weakness in the US dollar index, coupled with rupee depreciation, provided dual tailwinds for Indian investors. Geopolitical tensions, shifting central bank policies, and cautious Federal Reserve outlook continued supporting silver's appeal as a portfolio hedge.

2026 Outlook: Front-loaded Strength with Rising Volatility

For 2026, Motilal Oswal maintains a positive view while flagging potential challenges. The firm expects silver's strength to remain front-loaded into the first half of 2026, citing continued policy and currency uncertainty. However, volatility may increase in the second half due to evolving macro conditions, profit booking after the sharp 2025 rally, and global rate actions.

The brokerage believes silver could outperform gold in 2026, supported by an improved economic outlook, greater industrial demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts. Despite potential near-term corrections, strong structural demand and overall uncertainties are expected to limit downside, reinforcing silver's role as a core portfolio hedge in a fragmented global macro landscape.