Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial, added SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) to the Mango Growth ETF (NASDAQ: GARY) after the stock fell below its $135 IPO price. The move follows a recent dip in shares from a post-IPO peak of $225 to approximately $105, creating an entry point for the fund manager.

Kilburg identified Starlink, SpaceX’s high-speed internet network, as the primary driver of his bull case. He argued that the company’s value extends beyond rocket launches to its orbital infrastructure. This thesis was reinforced by SpaceX’s second-quarter results, where Connectivity revenue rose 66% to $4.3 billion.

Starlink subscriber base doubles

Starlink ended the second quarter with 12 million subscribers, a figure that doubled compared to the prior year. The network currently operates about 11,000 active satellites, significantly outpacing competitors like Eutelsat OneWeb, which has roughly 650 active satellites. Kilburg noted that the deployment of larger, higher-capacity satellites is central to future growth, particularly in direct-to-cell services and in-flight internet for commercial airlines.

Vertical integration advantage

SpaceX benefits from vertical integration, using its own Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets to deploy Starlink satellites. This internal customer model contrasts with satellite operators who must purchase launch services from external providers. The recent first orbital flight of Starship, carrying 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, aims to widen this competitive gap by enabling the transport of even larger payloads at lower costs.

What the Numbers Show

The correlation between subscriber growth and revenue expansion highlights the scalability of the connectivity business. With subscribers doubling and Connectivity revenue rising 66%, the data suggests that average revenue per user may have declined slightly or remained flat, indicating that growth is driven primarily by volume rather than pricing power. However, the sheer scale of the satellite constellation (11,000 vs 650 for OneWeb) creates a significant barrier to entry for competitors, supporting the argument that Starlink is becoming a dominant cash cow within the SpaceX ecosystem.

Technical levels and risks

The stock has recovered approximately 41% from its August low, trading near $150.64 at the time of publication. Kilburg identified the $135 IPO price, which aligns with the 50-day moving average, as a key support level. While he acknowledged potential volatility from upcoming lockup expirations, he characterized this as a technical issue rather than a fundamental shift in the long-term story. He also flagged risks associated with speculative ambitions such as computing in space, but maintained that the long-term opportunity justifies these risks.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) CEO Elon Musk stated that the company’s orbital data center satellites will cost far less than Wall Street analysts predict. Musk made this claim ahead of Starship’s maiden orbital launch, challenging recent cost models for gigawatt-scale orbital compute.

Cost projections diverge from Wall Street estimates

Investment firm Mach33 CEO Aaron Burnett and other analysts have placed the cost of 1 GW of SpaceX orbital compute between $160 billion and $180 billion. Bank of America estimates this figure at approximately $165 billion, while Wood Mackenzie cites $170 billion. BNP Paribas noted that launch costs alone exceed $100 billion.

In contrast, user Jo Bhakdi presented a model calculating the total cost at $68 billion, falling to $43 billion by 2035. Responding to this disparity, Musk asserted on social media platform X that the actual costs would be "way better" than Bhakdi’s figures by 2028.

Starlink positioned as global internet backbone

Musk also reiterated his view that Starlink satellite internet service could eventually carry a majority of Earth’s IP traffic. In response to forecasts regarding Starlink V3 constellation deployments by 2028, he stated it is "increasingly probable" that Starlink will dominate long-term traffic.

Musk argued that once Starlink carries the majority of IP traffic, it would effectively become the internet itself, with other networks connecting to it rather than the reverse. This vision aligns with previous statements where Musk described Starlink as potentially more reliable than cable infrastructure.

Launch timeline and market reaction

The comments come as SpaceX prepares for the first orbital launch of its Starship rocket. The launch, initially scheduled for September 22, was delayed and is now set for September 28. The mission is expected to carry Starlink V3 satellites.

Following these announcements, SpaceX shares traded up 0.28% to $149.09 during overnight trading sessions.

What the numbers show

The divergence between Wall Street’s $160-$180 billion estimate and Bhakdi’s $68 billion model highlights a significant uncertainty in pricing emerging space-based infrastructure. While BNP Paribas attributes over $100 billion to launch costs alone, Bhakdi’s total all-in figure is lower than that single component, suggesting a fundamental disagreement on launch economics or hardware efficiency assumptions.