Chapwood Index 2025 shows real cost-of-living rises above CPI
The Chapwood Index 2025 report indicates that Americans are experiencing real cost-of-living increases between 10% and 14% annually, significantly higher than the inflation rates reported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index tracks prices of 150 goods and services across 50 major metropolitan areas without statistical adjustments. Founder Ed Butowsky asserts that CPI fails to reflect the financial reality faced by families, leading to an erosion of purchasing power.

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The Chapwood Index 2025 report reveals that Americans continue to face real cost-of-living increases ranging from 10% to 14% annually, a figure that dramatically exceeds the inflation rates reported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This disparity raises concerns about the reliance on CPI as the nation's primary measure for inflation and purchasing power, particularly for financial planning and wage adjustments. The index tracks the actual prices of 150 commonly purchased goods and services across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, measuring real prices paid by consumers without substitutions, hedonic adjustments, or weighting manipulations.
"The CPI no longer reflects the financial reality facing American families," said Ed Butowsky, Founder of the Chapwood Index. He noted that everyday expenses such as groceries, insurance premiums, taxes, utilities, and healthcare costs are rising far faster than government statistics suggest. The report highlights that long-term averages in major metropolitan areas remain between 10% and 14%, far surpassing the CPI figures used for Social Security adjustments, pension increases, and retirement planning.
2025 Findings and Regional Data
The 2025 data confirms that annual cost-of-living increases are several times higher than official inflation reports. Nationally, the average annual increase in the actual cost of living remains approximately 11% to 12%, according to Chapwood Index calculations. The report identifies specific cities with the highest long-term inflation rates, showing significant regional variations that national averages often obscure.
| City | Average Annual Increase |
|---|---|
| Oakland | 14.19% |
| San Francisco | 14.16% |
| Long Beach | 14.04% |
| San Jose | 13.96% |
| Los Angeles | 13.34% |
| Boston | 13.03% |
Limitations of the Consumer Price Index
The report argues that the Consumer Price Index was never designed to measure the actual increase in maintaining a constant standard of living. The Chapwood Index identifies several reasons why CPI fails as a real-world benchmark, including its reliance on statistical adjustments that reduce reported inflation and its inability to capture the full impact of taxes and local costs. Additionally, CPI applies national averages despite vast regional differences, meaning a family in Dallas experiences a different inflation environment than a family in San Francisco or Boston.
Impact on Financial Planning
The consequences of relying on CPI are significant for retirement projections, pension assumptions, and investment return targets. A portfolio earning 7% annually may appear successful when compared to CPI, but if a family's true cost of living rises by 11% to 12%, purchasing power continues to decline. The Chapwood Index concludes that many Americans are falling behind not because they fail to save or invest, but because the benchmark used to measure inflation fails to reflect their actual expenses.
How might pension funds and retirement planners adjust their return assumptions if they adopted the Chapwood Index instead of CPI?
Could the growing disparity between CPI and real cost-of-living metrics trigger a shift in how the Federal Reserve targets inflation?
Will the significant regional variations in inflation highlighted by the report lead to more localized wage negotiation strategies?
































