Spot truckload rates increased in May even as freight volumes declined, driven by tighter capacity rather than rising demand, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. Several factors disrupted the supply of available trucks, including the CVSA International Roadcheck inspection blitz, Memorial Day weekend, and ongoing immigration enforcement that continues to shrink the available driver pool. The capacity constraints have led to higher rates across all equipment types, even as demand metrics softened.

Volume and Rate Trends

The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which measures demand for truckload services, fell across all three equipment types compared to April. Van TVI dropped 9% to 233, while refrigerated (reefer) TVI fell 10% to 172. Flatbed TVI saw the steepest decline, dropping 14% to 267. Despite lower volumes, spot rates increased significantly, reflecting tighter capacity and reduced truck supply.

Linehaul rates drove the pricing increases, with van linehaul up $0.20 to $2.16 per mile, reefer up $0.22 to $2.56, and flatbed up $0.17 to $2.78. Fuel surcharges remained elevated, ranging from 73 cents per mile for vans to 87 cents for flatbeds.

Contract vs. Spot Rates

Carriers have shifted capacity toward contract freight to take advantage of fuel surcharge programs, reducing truck supply on the open market. This shift has made the spot market more sensitive to disruptions like Roadcheck and holiday slowdowns. Notably, reefer spot rates crossed above contract rates in May at $3.35 per mile compared to $3.28 per mile, reflecting both capacity migration and seasonal pressure on temperature-controlled equipment.

Contract rates moved modestly higher, with van rates up $0.07 to $2.92 per mile, reefer up $0.06 to $3.28, and flatbed up $0.06 to $3.77. Year-over-year, contract rates increased significantly, with van rates up $0.54, reefer up $0.57, and flatbed up $0.70.

Industry Commentary

"Last month's lower volumes do not mean May was a weak freight market," said Dean Croke, principal industry analyst at DAT. "The capacity supply has come down to meet demand, and carriers in the spot market are being compensated for it. Add in the migration of capacity toward contract freight for fuel surcharge certainty, and you have a spot market that's tighter than load volumes alone would suggest."

The DAT Truckload Volume Index measures monthly changes in loads with a pickup date during that month, using a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. Benchmark spot rates reflect invoice data for hauls of 250 miles or more, offering a consistent view of truckload demand and spot rate trends across the United States and Canada.

US private employers added an average of 25,500 jobs per week for the four weeks ending May 30, 2026, down from 29,000 the prior week, according to the ADP National Employment Report (NER) Pulse. This decline continues a trend of moderation in hiring activity, reflecting a cooling labor market. The preliminary data is seasonally adjusted and based on a four-week moving average derived from ADP's high-frequency data.

The NER Pulse serves as a weekly estimate of week-over-week employment changes, utilizing a two-week lag to ensure accuracy. The report is produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

Employment Trends

The table below details the four-week moving average of seasonally adjusted employment changes over recent weeks, highlighting the broader trajectory in private sector hiring:

The data highlights notable volatility in the labor market, with peak growth observed in late March and early April before a general moderation began. The estimates are subject to revision as new data is incorporated.

Data Availability

The NER Pulse publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, excluding weeks when the monthly National Employment Report is released. The next scheduled release is June 16, 2026. The full report and historical data are available on the ADP Research website and in the ADP Media Center.