Members of the US Congress have executed more sell orders than buy orders for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock so far in 2026. Trading data reveals a shift toward profit-taking among lawmakers as the chipmaker approaches its second-quarter earnings report.

Congressional Trading Activity

Data from the Benzinga Government Trades page shows 23 sell orders and 17 buy orders for Nvidia stock by members of Congress in 2026. While the majority of transactions fall within the $1,000 to $15,000 range, the volume of larger sales exceeds that of larger purchases.

Recent activity in May, June, and July further highlights this divergence. Lawmakers executed nine sales compared to five purchases during this period. The sales ranged from $235,000 to $675,000, while purchases ranged from $5,000 to $75,000. This disparity in transaction sizes suggests stronger conviction in selling positions than in acquiring new ones.

Earnings Expectations

Nvidia has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in 18 of the last 20 quarters and revenue estimates in 19 of the last 20 quarters. The current streaks stand at 14 quarters for EPS and 15 quarters for revenue.

Despite these beats, the stock price has fallen after five of the last six earnings reports. Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of $92.01 billion, up from $46.74 billion in the same quarter last year. Earnings per share are projected at $2.09, compared to $1.04 in the prior year period.

What the Numbers Show

The data reveals a concentration of selling pressure in higher-value brackets. While small transactions ($1,000-$15,000) dominate both sides, the largest disclosed buy ($250,000-$500,000) is outweighed by multiple large sell orders, including two in the $100,000-$250,000 range and recent sales reaching $675,000.

Nvidia Corp’s upcoming earnings and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting are defining a dual-theme week for ETF investors, balancing artificial intelligence growth against higher-for-longer interest rates.

Nvidia Keeps AI ETFs in the Spotlight

Nvidia’s results serve as a test for the sustainability of the AI spending boom. John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, expects Nvidia to beat guidance, citing an "extremely tight" supply/demand environment for AI computing infrastructure.

Belton highlighted rising costs for cloud-based computing, noting that Nvidia A100 rental prices at major public clouds have risen about 15% over the past three months and 20% since the start of the year.

This backdrop supports semiconductor ETFs. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) offers diversified exposure to the chip cycle, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) provides a concentrated basket of leaders.

Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler, described Nvidia as a long-term holding with "insatiable" demand. She pointed to the company’s efforts to mobilize $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure, suggesting benefits extend beyond chips to "pick and shovel" beneficiaries like Amazon and Eaton.

Jackson Hole Raises the Rate-Risk Question

Larry Holzenthaler, senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds, called this year’s Jackson Hole gathering "one of the more meaningful" in recent times due to persistent inflation, large deficits, and Fed policy uncertainty.

Holzenthaler noted that inflation remains above the Fed’s target and deficits are a renewed focus. He highlighted market anxiety over Fed Chair Warsh’s comments describing Jackson Hole as a "blank piece of paper" and recent high dissent rates at the Fed.

His advice for bond investors is to position for rates "higher than most people have been used to post the GFC." This creates an advantage for floating-rate and short-duration ETFs over long-duration Treasury funds.

ETFs Positioned for Higher-For-Longer Rate Regime

Holzenthaler suggested "staying shorter on the curve" using floating-rate assets and credit to sidestep volatility in longer-duration bonds.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between rising AI infrastructure costs and fixed income strategies highlights a bifurcated market approach. While A100 rental prices rose 20% year-to-date, signaling strong operational demand in tech, bond managers are explicitly avoiding long-duration assets to mitigate rate risk. This suggests investors are segmenting portfolios: aggressive growth via semiconductors versus defensive income via short-duration credit.