Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) shares rose 13.08% to $104.62 on Wednesday, joining a broad rally in cryptocurrency equities. The stock’s advance was propelled by fresh optimism surrounding the CLARITY Act and a move by the US Treasury Department to expand its long-dated bond-buyback program. Bitmine (NASDAQ: BMNR) and Bullish (NYSE: BLSH) also added 13%, while Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and Circle (NYSE: CRCL) climbed nearly 12%.

Macro Drivers: Yields and Dollar

The Treasury’s decision to double the minimum size of its long-term bond buyback operations to $4 billion starting September 9 has shifted debt composition, reducing the supply of long-term bonds in investors’ hands. This structural change contributed to a decline in long-term yields this week. The 30-year yield retreated from its highest level since 2007 on Tuesday to just above 5.2%, while the 10-year yield eased toward 4.65%.

Simultaneously, the US dollar weakened by roughly 0.8%. Clear Street analyst Owen Lau noted that investors are rotating out of AI stocks after a strong run, moving capital into crypto-adjacent equities. The combination of falling yields, a softer dollar, and sector rotation typically encourages capital flows into higher-return assets.

Crypto Market Reaction

The macroeconomic shift triggered immediate gains across major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) added 6% on the day, while Ethereum outperformed with an 10% gain. Solana climbed 7%, and XRP rose 8%.

Regulatory Developments

Political developments in Washington further supported investor sentiment. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) stated at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole that the CLARITY Act has a "really good shot" of moving forward in September. "There’s no question about the fact that this will become law," Scott said.

White House Council of Advisors for Digital Assets executive director Patrick Witt told the conference that negotiations have narrowed to a binary choice between two options, a setup that typically precedes a deal. The Senate procedural vote remains on the calendar for September 15. The remaining sticking point is an ethics provision tied to President Donald Trump family’s crypto interests. Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) sent a proposal to the White House on that front, but the administration has not yet publicly responded.

Previously, after the Securities and Exchange Commission cancelled a planned meeting on regulatory relief for digital assets without rescheduling, President Trump announced a White House meeting with cryptocurrency executives for Wednesday. Milk Road analyst John Gillan described the administration’s move as evidence of intent to negotiate a deal on the CLARITY Act, rather than allowing the SEC to resolve matters through regulation alone.

What the Numbers Show

The correlation between Strategy’s share price movement and broader market indicators highlights the company’s sensitivity to macroeconomic liquidity conditions. With MSTR rising 13.08% alongside Bitcoin’s 6% gain, the stock is exhibiting beta-like behavior relative to the underlying asset class, amplified by the specific catalyst of Treasury yield compression and regulatory clarity. Technically, MSTR tests $105 resistance for the fourth time in two months after breaking above its 20-day and 50-day EMAs in a single session.

New research suggests that Kalshi, a financial forecasting platform, may be increasingly leading price discovery for Bitcoin ahead of major exchanges like Binance. Analysis by Synth, a high-frequency trading team, reveals that moves in Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin contracts have become stronger predictors of Binance’s subsequent price action over the past eight months.

The correlation between a preceding move on Kalshi and Binance’s price change within 0 to 2 seconds rose from 0.036 in January to 0.145 in June, reaching 0.173 in August. While these absolute figures remain modest, the nearly fivefold increase aligns with growing liquidity and trading volume on the prediction market platform.

Institutional Liquidity Drives Shift

Synth attributes this development to sophisticated firms using Kalshi not just to react to current prices, but to forecast where Bitcoin will trade five to 30 seconds ahead. These entities utilize order books, perpetual futures, liquidations, and proprietary order flow to execute trades before moves appear on traditional exchanges.

This structural shift is supported by significant growth in professional participation. Kalshi reported in May that institutional trading volume surged 800% over the preceding six months as quantitative and market-making firms entered the space. Additionally, Cantor Fitzgerald announced plans to provide its approximately 3,000 institutional clients, including hedge funds and family offices, access to Kalshi, with Susquehanna providing pricing and liquidity.

What the Numbers Show

The data indicates a divergence between traditional exchange mechanics and prediction market dynamics. The rising correlation coefficient (from 0.036 to 0.173) alongside the reported 800% increase in institutional volume suggests that information efficiency on Kalshi is improving faster than its raw size might imply. However, the absolute correlation of 0.173 implies that while Kalshi is gaining predictive power, it does not yet dominate Binance’s price discovery process.

Limitations in Current Research

Despite the findings, critical gaps remain in the analysis. Synth tested only the directional flow from Kalshi to Binance. When queried about the reverse relationship, the firm stated it may address the question in future research.

For context, a separate study found evidence of Binance leading Polymarket, with Polymarket quotes moving a median of 347 milliseconds after large Bitcoin moves on Binance. That research covered Polymarket’s own 15-minute Bitcoin contracts but did not examine Kalshi. This highlights the need for bidirectional testing before concluding that Kalshi definitively leads Binance in price discovery.

The research emerges as Bitcoin recently squeezed over $1 billion in shorts, driving a 6% move to $68,500. If the observed trend holds, Kalshi’s crypto markets could increasingly serve as an early indicator for Bitcoin’s next moves rather than merely tracking existing price action.