Scaramucci sees Bitcoin hitting $100,000 as prediction markets turn skeptical
Anthony Scaramucci predicts Bitcoin will surpass $100,000, citing a shallow 55% bear market drawdown compared to historical 75-80% declines. Standard Chartered supports this with a $100,000 year-end 2026 target. However, Polymarket data reveals deep skepticism, assigning only an 8% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before 2027, down from 92% in January, with 76% of bets favoring a drop below $60,000.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci expects Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to push back above $100,000, describing the current market phase as a bear market with an unusually shallow drawdown. While institutional forecasts remain optimistic, retail sentiment on prediction markets has shifted dramatically toward skepticism.
Divergence in Market Sentiment
A stark contrast has emerged between expert predictions and trader sentiment. Scaramucci remains optimistic about the asset reclaiming the $100,000 milestone, though he did not specify a timeframe. He argued that Bitcoin’s drawdown of roughly 55% is shallower than previous cycles, indicating that a larger base of net buyers is building positions ahead of the next bull phase.
Conversely, Polygon-based Polymarket currently assigns only an 8% chance of Bitcoin topping $100,000 before December 31, 2026. This figure represents a significant decline from a peak of 92% in January and 50% in May. Punters are pricing in less than a 15% chance of Bitcoin hitting $90,000 this year and only a 31% chance of it topping $80,000.
Markets are betting heavily on the downside, with a 76% chance that Bitcoin falls below $60,000. Approximately $53.75 million has been wagered on these outcomes. At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $64,336, up 0.43% over the last 24 hours.
Institutional Support and Price Dynamics
Standard Chartered maintained its $100,000 year-end 2026 price target for Bitcoin in a research note published last month, aligning with Scaramucci’s long-term bullish view but contrasting with immediate market pricing.
Speaking at Wyoming’s Blockchain Symposium on Tuesday, Scaramucci highlighted that Bitcoin has remained in the tightest volatility band of the past five years for nine weeks, with minimal movement since the Iran war began in February. He identified three primary factors contributing to the current price stall:
- Miners have shifted compute power toward artificial intelligence, disrupting hash rate and muting volatility.
- Capital has flowed out of crypto broadly and into AI stocks.
- Investors adhering to four-year cycles recognize that Bitcoin is approaching the typical end of its bear phase, sitting roughly 18 to 19 months from the next halving.
Despite these headwinds, Scaramucci stated, "I think you’ll see the thing move back up over $100,000... But it’s going to grind for a while."
Regulatory Outlook and Banking Convergence
Scaramucci dismissed the idea that the passage of the Clarity Act would serve as an immediate price catalyst for Bitcoin. While he acknowledged the bill would be positive in the long term by removing regulatory pendulum swings between administrations and opening access opportunities for banks, he viewed the supply-demand differential from the next halving as the more meaningful near-term driver.
He estimated the odds of the Clarity Act passing at roughly 50-50. Senators Tim Scott (R-SC) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), both present at the symposium, believe they can secure passage by September. Scaramucci noted that if the act passes, he expects major crypto companies, including Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), to pursue banking licenses, fostering a broader convergence between crypto and traditional banking.
Bear Market Characteristics
Scaramucci contrasted the current Bitcoin drawdown of roughly 55% with historical precedents. He noted that prior bear markets across his 37 years in finance typically saw drops of 75% to 80%. He argued that this shallower decline reflects a larger base of net buyers building positions ahead of the next bull phase.
World Liberty Financial Development
Addressing the conditional approval for the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (CRYPTO: WLFI) to become a bank, Scaramucci characterized the development as minor for the broader market. He argued that it is not fair to prevent the president’s adult children from conducting business solely due to their father’s position, though he acknowledged the situation warrants careful scrutiny for conflicts of interest.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between institutional targets and prediction market probabilities highlights a significant disconnect in near-term expectations. While Standard Chartered and Scaramucci anchor their views on structural factors like halving cycles and shallow drawdowns, Polymarket participants are pricing in immediate downside risk, with nearly three-quarters of bets favoring a drop below $60,000. This suggests that while long-term structural support may be intact, short-term liquidity and sentiment remain fragile.
How might the reallocation of mining compute power toward AI infrastructure permanently alter Bitcoin's hash rate dynamics and long-term security model?
If the Clarity Act passes, what specific regulatory hurdles will major crypto exchanges like Coinbase face in obtaining traditional banking licenses?
Could the current divergence between institutional bullishness and retail skepticism on Polymarket signal an impending liquidity shock or a contrarian buying opportunity?
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