Large Bitcoin holders have intensified their accumulation strategy despite recent price weakness, adding approximately 43,000 BTC worth roughly $2.75 billion at current prices over the past 60 days. Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, reported by Bloomberg, indicates that these "conviction buyers" are stepping in as profit-taking slows, a pattern Glassnode notes resembles market bottoms formed in 2022.

Whale Activity and Exchange Ratios

The accumulation by large holders is accompanied by a decline in Bitcoin’s Exchange Whale Ratio. This metric quantifies the extent to which large holders drive deposit activity on exchanges. A lower ratio suggests that inflow activity is distributed broadly among smaller participants, with whales remaining relatively inactive on exchanges and favoring long-term holding or off-exchange accumulation.

Glassnode highlighted that strong hands are buying native Bitcoin, stating that bottoms typically form when conviction buyers enter the market. The firm pointed to a similar setup during January 2022, when Bitcoin dropped to $60,000 and saw the largest increase in holdings by conviction buyers.

Miner Sell Pressure and ETF Flows

While large investors accumulate, other market participants are exerting downward pressure. Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez noted that miners have increased selling activity, with 1,648 BTC moving out of miner wallets over the past 10 days. This surge in miner sell-offs contrasts with the accumulation trend seen among whale wallets.

Institutional flows via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also showed volatility. According to SoSo Value, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows worth nearly $390 million last week. This follows a period of inflows, where the same ETFs experienced net inflows of $486 million over the first two days of the week.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between whale accumulation and miner selling highlights a shift in supply dynamics. While whales are absorbing supply worth billions, miners are distributing significant quantities, potentially capping short-term upside. Additionally, the reversal in ETF flows—from $486 million in inflows to $390 million in outflows within a short timeframe—suggests institutional sentiment remains sensitive to price action despite long-term holder conviction.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $64,265.99, up 0.31% in the last 24 hours, according to Benzinga Pro data.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci expects Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to push back above $100,000, describing the current market phase as a bear market with an unusually shallow drawdown. While institutional forecasts remain optimistic, retail sentiment on prediction markets has shifted dramatically toward skepticism.

Divergence in Market Sentiment

A stark contrast has emerged between expert predictions and trader sentiment. Scaramucci remains optimistic about the asset reclaiming the $100,000 milestone, though he did not specify a timeframe. He argued that Bitcoin’s drawdown of roughly 55% is shallower than previous cycles, indicating that a larger base of net buyers is building positions ahead of the next bull phase.

Conversely, Polygon-based Polymarket currently assigns only an 8% chance of Bitcoin topping $100,000 before December 31, 2026. This figure represents a significant decline from a peak of 92% in January and 50% in May. Punters are pricing in less than a 15% chance of Bitcoin hitting $90,000 this year and only a 31% chance of it topping $80,000.

Markets are betting heavily on the downside, with a 76% chance that Bitcoin falls below $60,000. Approximately $53.75 million has been wagered on these outcomes. At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $64,336, up 0.43% over the last 24 hours.

Institutional Support and Price Dynamics

Standard Chartered maintained its $100,000 year-end 2026 price target for Bitcoin in a research note published last month, aligning with Scaramucci’s long-term bullish view but contrasting with immediate market pricing.

Speaking at Wyoming’s Blockchain Symposium on Tuesday, Scaramucci highlighted that Bitcoin has remained in the tightest volatility band of the past five years for nine weeks, with minimal movement since the Iran war began in February. He identified three primary factors contributing to the current price stall:

• Miners have shifted compute power toward artificial intelligence, disrupting hash rate and muting volatility.
• Capital has flowed out of crypto broadly and into AI stocks.
• Investors adhering to four-year cycles recognize that Bitcoin is approaching the typical end of its bear phase, sitting roughly 18 to 19 months from the next halving.

Despite these headwinds, Scaramucci stated, "I think you’ll see the thing move back up over $100,000... But it’s going to grind for a while."

Regulatory Outlook and Banking Convergence

Scaramucci dismissed the idea that the passage of the Clarity Act would serve as an immediate price catalyst for Bitcoin. While he acknowledged the bill would be positive in the long term by removing regulatory pendulum swings between administrations and opening access opportunities for banks, he viewed the supply-demand differential from the next halving as the more meaningful near-term driver.

He estimated the odds of the Clarity Act passing at roughly 50-50. Senators Tim Scott (R-SC) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), both present at the symposium, believe they can secure passage by September. Scaramucci noted that if the act passes, he expects major crypto companies, including Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), to pursue banking licenses, fostering a broader convergence between crypto and traditional banking.

Bear Market Characteristics

Scaramucci contrasted the current Bitcoin drawdown of roughly 55% with historical precedents. He noted that prior bear markets across his 37 years in finance typically saw drops of 75% to 80%. He argued that this shallower decline reflects a larger base of net buyers building positions ahead of the next bull phase.

World Liberty Financial Development

Addressing the conditional approval for the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial (CRYPTO: WLFI) to become a bank, Scaramucci characterized the development as minor for the broader market. He argued that it is not fair to prevent the president’s adult children from conducting business solely due to their father’s position, though he acknowledged the situation warrants careful scrutiny for conflicts of interest.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between institutional targets and prediction market probabilities highlights a significant disconnect in near-term expectations. While Standard Chartered and Scaramucci anchor their views on structural factors like halving cycles and shallow drawdowns, Polymarket participants are pricing in immediate downside risk, with nearly three-quarters of bets favoring a drop below $60,000. This suggests that while long-term structural support may be intact, short-term liquidity and sentiment remain fragile.