Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) spot trading volume has declined to its lowest level since 2019, reflecting a market where sellers are tiring but buyers remain absent. The asset is currently confined to a tight trading range between $63,000 and $68,700.

Glassnode analyst Frederik Theissen noted in the firm's weekly on-chain report that Bitcoin failed to react significantly to July core CPI data of 2.5% or record-high equity levels. This lack of response suggests a distinct absence of demand despite a benign macroeconomic backdrop.

Price Support and Resistance Levels

The asset is pinned between two key cost-basis levels. The Median Realized Price at $63,000 has acted as support, absorbing tests from above for more than a month. Overhead resistance sits at the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $68,700, representing the average entry price for recent buyers who are currently underwater.

Price has remained within this pocket for nearly three months as these two levels converge. Reclaiming $68,700 would return recent buyers to profit, while a break below $63,000 would leave little structural support before the June lows.

Market Dynamics: Sellers vs Buyers

Seller pressure appears to be waning, with the Seller Exhaustion Constant at a cycle low among the weakest readings since 2013. The Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks whether coins move at a profit or loss, has tested breakeven nine times since October but failed each time.

Conversely, buying interest remains weak. ETF inflows turned slightly positive at the end of July but represent only a fraction of prior accumulation waves. Exchange inflows continue to rise, indicating building sell-side supply without sufficient institutional demand to absorb it.

What the Numbers Show

A significant divergence exists between spot market activity and derivatives positioning. While spot participation has dried up, futures open interest has grown to exceed an entire day of futures volume, nearing last September's record. Derivatives traders on Hyperliquid have been net long every day since mid-March, a historic streak for the platform. This buildup of leverage occurs alongside shrinking resting bids, which have fallen by roughly a third since July, reducing the buying interest available to cushion any downward move toward the June low near $58,500.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen identified the next 60 days as a crucial stretch for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), suggesting that historical seasonality and previous market cycles point to late September through November as a potential bottoming window. In a podcast on Aug. 12, Cowen stated that this period could determine how the current bear market ultimately plays out.

Seasonal Patterns in Midterm Years

Cowen highlighted August and September as historically difficult months, particularly during U.S. midterm election years. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin posted losses in May and June, recovered in July, and then turned lower again in August and September. The asset followed the first part of that pattern in 2026, falling in May and June before rebounding in July.

Across midterm years, Bitcoin has historically declined roughly 10%-11% on average in August and about 8% in September. A similar decline from current levels could initially push Bitcoin toward $56,000, with additional weakness potentially taking it into the low-$50,000 range. Cowen stressed that seasonality is not guaranteed, estimating such patterns work roughly 70% of the time.

Cycle Timing and Historical Lows

The seasonal weakness overlaps with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle timing. Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s previous two major cycle bottoms arrived roughly 1,432 and 1,436 days after their respective cycle lows. Bitcoin is currently around day 1,360 of the present cycle. Another 60 days would put the market near day 1,420, within weeks of the timing of previous cyclical bottoms.

Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows arrived in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022. Cowen estimates October could have roughly the same probability of marking the bottom as all other potential months combined, though he cautioned against attempting to time an exact date. His preferred approach is dollar-cost averaging during the second half of a midterm year rather than waiting for a perfect bottom.

What the Numbers Show

The structural similarity between 2026 and 2018 presents a divergence in volatility rather than price action. Cowen described 2026 as a “less volatile version of 2018,” attributing this partly to retail participation and social interest never reaching the euphoric levels seen around previous cycle peaks. This reduced volatility creates a possibility of Bitcoin trading sideways near $60,000 through the next several months, contrasting with the final capitulation move seen in November 2018.