Bitcoin needs to hold $63,000 for fresh upside: 10x Research
10x Research highlights $63,000 as a critical support level for Bitcoin after six months of consolidation around $60,000. The firm notes a shift in coin distribution compared to the previous $70,000-$90,000 rally. Analysts observe seller exhaustion near $64,000 despite weak retail interest and reduced buying from Strategy. Macro risks include rising Treasury yields and potential stock market corrections.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading near $65,000, but 10x Research identifies $63,000 as the decisive support level determining its next major move. The firm described this price point as a "binary level," arguing that holding above it is essential for shifting market sentiment toward fresh upside.
Why $63,000 Matters
Bitcoin spent approximately six months consolidating around $60,000 ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Following President Trump’s victory, the asset rallied from around $70,000 to $90,000. However, 10x Research noted in its August 18 report that there was relatively little turnover between $70,000 and $90,000 during this rally.
This lack of supply previously left Bitcoin vulnerable to a rapid decline once it fell below $93,000, with limited support until the mid-$60,000s range. The market has now spent another six months consolidating around $60,000. According to 10x Research, the distribution of coins changing hands has shifted significantly during this period, making the current range far more important for Bitcoin’s next major move.
Seller Exhaustion Signals
In a panel discussion on August 17, analysts highlighted Bitcoin’s resilience near $64,000 as a potentially constructive signal. Despite negative headlines, weak retail speculation, and diminishing BTC purchases from Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the asset repeatedly resisted further downside.
Galipeau, a strategist at Franklin Templeton, noted that markets can begin turning when increasingly negative news stops producing additional selling pressure. This dynamic could point toward seller exhaustion and a developing bottom.
Macro Headwinds
The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed. Galipeau remains constructive on equities and potential productivity and margin benefits from artificial intelligence. However, slowing earnings growth and seasonal weakness could increase volatility in September and October.
Mike McGlone adopted a more cautious stance, highlighting rising long-term Treasury yields as a potential threat to Bitcoin, stocks, and commodities. He argued that a roughly 10% stock-market correction could drag Bitcoin lower. Meanwhile, he stated that simultaneously easing inflation pressures will be enough to alter the Fed policy outlook.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence between price action and sentiment indicators suggests a potential decoupling. While retail speculation is described as weak and Strategy’s buying activity is diminishing, Bitcoin has maintained support near $64,000. This resilience in the face of reduced demand drivers indicates that selling pressure may be exhausting, a pattern often seen at market bottoms.
How might a break below the $63,000 support level trigger a cascade of liquidations given the limited turnover observed in the $70,000-$90,000 range?
Could rising long-term Treasury yields force the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, thereby extending the macro headwinds for Bitcoin and risk assets?
What specific on-chain metrics would confirm that seller exhaustion has fully materialized versus a temporary pause in selling pressure?
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