Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading around $63,000, but diminishing price action and fading social interest may signal an impending shift in market structure. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that the asset is being squeezed between its 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band, creating a narrowing range that typically forces a larger directional move.

Narrowing Range and Volatility Compression

Cowen’s base case remains bearish in the near term. He expects Bitcoin could break lower before the cycle bottoms, potentially alongside a stock-market correction later in September. "Normally, Bitcoin shows weakness before stocks do," he said.

The primary indicator for this potential move is historically low volatility. Bitcoin’s 60-day volatility has fallen to roughly 1.47%, while 30-day volatility sits near 1.16%. Cowen noted that these levels rarely persist for long and expects volatility to expand sharply as summer ends.

Historical Parallels to 2018 Cycle

Cowen draws similarities between Bitcoin’s current structure and the 2018 bear market. Both cycles featured a February low, a lower high in May, and another downside move during the summer. Social interest has deteriorated to levels last seen at the same point in the 2018 cycle.

While patterns do not guarantee outcomes, Cowen believes one final decline could reset on-chain indicators and create capitulation conditions associated with a durable market bottom. A break below $60,000 would resemble the 2018 and 2019 periods, when Bitcoin held major support for months before losing it and forming its cycle low weeks later.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between price stability and falling volatility metrics suggests latent energy in the market. With 30-day volatility at 1.16% and 60-day volatility at 1.47%, the compression is significant. This tight band indicates that the current equilibrium near $63,000 is fragile and likely to resolve with higher amplitude moves rather than continued consolidation.

Outlook for Bear Market End

Cowen estimates Bitcoin is roughly 10 months into what could ultimately become a 12-month bear market. He does not expect the crypto winter to last indefinitely, viewing the next several weeks as potentially defining the end of the current bear phase. Volatility is expected to return before Bitcoin enters its next broader recovery, leading Cowen to favor gradual accumulation over timing a final capitulation candle.

Binance founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao estimated on Saturday that 10-20% of all mined Bitcoin is effectively gone forever, translating to roughly 2-4 million coins. He characterized Bitcoin as a "deflationary asset" given its capped total supply and the continuous decrease in usable supply due to permanent losses.

Zhao noted in an X post that 20.07 million BTC have already been mined as of August 2026. This leaves only 4.4% of the remaining supply to enter circulation. The estimate implies that a significant portion of the existing stock is inaccessible, reinforcing the scarcity narrative for the cryptocurrency.

Supply Estimates

Zhao’s figures align with broader industry analysis. BitGo estimates that 2.3-4 million BTC, or about 11-18% of the 21 million supply cap, are lost or inaccessible. This range includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million untouched early BTC, which are technically dormant rather than confirmed lost.

Bitcoin becomes inaccessible through various mechanisms, including lost private keys, forgotten passwords, or death without leaving seed phrases or recovery instructions for heirs.

Market Commentary

Macro investor Raoul Pal urged investors to buy and hold a small number of high-quality Layer 1 blockchains that capture real economic activity. He warned that traders attempting to be clever during this cycle risk blowing up their positions.

Pal stated that banks and asset managers are shifting products onto blockchain rails, which are becoming central to the next phase of the internet involving AI agents. He added that liquidity is flowing and geopolitical noise may settle.

At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $63,541, up 0.86% in the last 24 hours.

What the Numbers Show

The convergence of Zhao’s estimate (2-4 million lost) and BitGo’s analysis (2.3-4 million lost) suggests a high degree of consensus on the scale of supply destruction. With only 4.4% of the total cap remaining to be mined, the majority of future supply constraints will stem from these permanent losses rather than new issuance.