Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) hit $64,000 on Monday as sell pressure showed early signs of easing, though weak spot liquidity and ETF outflows keep conviction limited, according to Glassnode.

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish wrote in the firm's Week 34 Market Pulse report that Bitcoin remains firmly range-bound after slipping from the $65,000 area over the past week. Spot volumes and transaction throughput keep contracting, pointing to subdued liquidity and limited directional conviction across the market.

What the Numbers Show

Derivatives data reveals a divergence between positioning and flow. While leverage has expanded moderately and funding rates remain positive indicating long-biased positioning, perpetual taker flows have turned increasingly sell-side. This reflects more aggressive distribution despite the net long bias in funding markets.

Institutional Demand Softens

Glassnode noted that institutional demand has softened meaningfully. Spot ETF volumes declined alongside net capital outflows, and aggregate ETF holdings now sit near their cost basis, leaving regulated investors with little unrealized profit.

On-chain profitability remains under pressure with realized losses exceeding profit-taking. However, the pace of capital outflows is beginning to moderate, marking the first early sign that selling pressure may be stabilizing.

Key Levels for BTC

Glassnode's overall read is that market structure sits caught between two forces: short-term selling pressure persists while longer-term positioning stays relatively resilient. Weak liquidity, softer institutional flows, and elevated loss realization favor continued consolidation until institutional demand returns or the range breaks.

Key technical levels include:

• $65,000: upper range boundary; reclaiming it shifts short-term bias
• $62,000: lower range support; loss reopens $58,000

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading around $63,000, but diminishing price action and fading social interest may signal an impending shift in market structure. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that the asset is being squeezed between its 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band, creating a narrowing range that typically forces a larger directional move.

Narrowing Range and Volatility Compression

Cowen’s base case remains bearish in the near term. He expects Bitcoin could break lower before the cycle bottoms, potentially alongside a stock-market correction later in September. "Normally, Bitcoin shows weakness before stocks do," he said.

The primary indicator for this potential move is historically low volatility. Bitcoin’s 60-day volatility has fallen to roughly 1.47%, while 30-day volatility sits near 1.16%. Cowen noted that these levels rarely persist for long and expects volatility to expand sharply as summer ends.

Historical Parallels to 2018 Cycle

Cowen draws similarities between Bitcoin’s current structure and the 2018 bear market. Both cycles featured a February low, a lower high in May, and another downside move during the summer. Social interest has deteriorated to levels last seen at the same point in the 2018 cycle.

While patterns do not guarantee outcomes, Cowen believes one final decline could reset on-chain indicators and create capitulation conditions associated with a durable market bottom. A break below $60,000 would resemble the 2018 and 2019 periods, when Bitcoin held major support for months before losing it and forming its cycle low weeks later.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between price stability and falling volatility metrics suggests latent energy in the market. With 30-day volatility at 1.16% and 60-day volatility at 1.47%, the compression is significant. This tight band indicates that the current equilibrium near $63,000 is fragile and likely to resolve with higher amplitude moves rather than continued consolidation.

Outlook for Bear Market End

Cowen estimates Bitcoin is roughly 10 months into what could ultimately become a 12-month bear market. He does not expect the crypto winter to last indefinitely, viewing the next several weeks as potentially defining the end of the current bear phase. Volatility is expected to return before Bitcoin enters its next broader recovery, leading Cowen to favor gradual accumulation over timing a final capitulation candle.