Binance founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao estimated on Saturday that 10-20% of all mined Bitcoin is effectively gone forever, translating to roughly 2-4 million coins. He characterized Bitcoin as a "deflationary asset" given its capped total supply and the continuous decrease in usable supply due to permanent losses.

Zhao noted in an X post that 20.07 million BTC have already been mined as of August 2026. This leaves only 4.4% of the remaining supply to enter circulation. The estimate implies that a significant portion of the existing stock is inaccessible, reinforcing the scarcity narrative for the cryptocurrency.

Supply Estimates

Zhao’s figures align with broader industry analysis. BitGo estimates that 2.3-4 million BTC, or about 11-18% of the 21 million supply cap, are lost or inaccessible. This range includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million untouched early BTC, which are technically dormant rather than confirmed lost.

Bitcoin becomes inaccessible through various mechanisms, including lost private keys, forgotten passwords, or death without leaving seed phrases or recovery instructions for heirs.

Market Commentary

Macro investor Raoul Pal urged investors to buy and hold a small number of high-quality Layer 1 blockchains that capture real economic activity. He warned that traders attempting to be clever during this cycle risk blowing up their positions.

Pal stated that banks and asset managers are shifting products onto blockchain rails, which are becoming central to the next phase of the internet involving AI agents. He added that liquidity is flowing and geopolitical noise may settle.

At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $63,541, up 0.86% in the last 24 hours.

What the Numbers Show

The convergence of Zhao’s estimate (2-4 million lost) and BitGo’s analysis (2.3-4 million lost) suggests a high degree of consensus on the scale of supply destruction. With only 4.4% of the total cap remaining to be mined, the majority of future supply constraints will stem from these permanent losses rather than new issuance.

Veteran investor Ross Gerber questioned whether Bitcoin has everyday practicality, stating on Sunday that it is "probably easier" to use gold in most places despite endless promises of cryptocurrency use cases.

Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, criticized the industry for limited value creation. He asked what value had been built beyond stablecoins, questioning the point of a monetary system that cannot be used.

Utility Debate

Leading cryptocurrency investor Scott Melker responded to Gerber's skepticism, pointing out that crypto-backed Mastercard Inc. and Visa Inc. cards allow users to spend Bitcoin almost everywhere. Gerber maintained his stance, suggesting the current utility remains limited compared to traditional assets.

Miner Pivot Concerns

Gerber also expressed concerns about large Bitcoin mining companies shifting hardware and capacity toward AI compute rather than pure-play Bitcoin mining. He stated this cannot be a good sign for Bitcoin, noting that GPUs have a much more important role in AI compute versus managing a blockchain.

CoinShares stated in a report that mining revenue is projected to plummet from around 85% of total revenue in early 2025 to less than 20% by the end of 2026 for companies that have secured AI contracts. Analysts estimate 20% of Bitcoin miner power capacity will shift to AI and high-performance computing by the end of 2027.

From Bull to Skeptic

Once a vocal advocate of Bitcoin, Gerber has grown more skeptical recently. In June, he said Bitcoin had "lost the narrative" while praising gold for its consistency as a stable asset. He also linked Bitcoin's underperformance to President Donald Trump’s profits from cryptocurrency businesses, suggesting this dented sentiment and industry legitimacy.

At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $63,459, up 0.60% in the last 24 hours.