Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be approaching a relative bottom against U.S. equities, with analyst Kev Capital forecasting a turning point within the next four to 12 weeks. In a podcast on Aug. 17, Kev highlighted that multiple higher-time-frame indicators suggest Bitcoin is stabilizing against the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, as well as against the S&P 500, gold, and silver.

Technical Support And Relative Strength

Kev identified a major support region for Bitcoin against the QQQ between the 0.703 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels. This zone has historically acted as critical support and resistance, playing a significant role during and after the 2022 bear market before Bitcoin broke higher relative to the QQQ in late 2023.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin has been in a sustained downtrend against the QQQ since around July 2025. However, he expects a new uptrend to potentially begin by the end of 2026 or early 2027 if the current bottoming process holds.

Key Indicators

Kev pointed to several two-week indicators supporting the bottoming thesis:

• Momentum waves are forming higher lows, mirroring the structure seen around the 2022 bear market bottom.
• Whale money flow shows early signs of improvement, interpreted as large investors rotating back toward Bitcoin relative to high-beta technology stocks.
• The BTC/QQQ two-week Relative Strength Index has fallen toward 30, described as its lowest reading on record.

What The Numbers Show

The divergence between Bitcoin’s relative weakness and stablecoin dynamics offers a key signal. While Bitcoin displays bottoming characteristics against major assets, USDT dominance is showing signs of a potential top. This suggests capital may be pausing its rotation into stablecoins, potentially setting the stage for a renewed inflow into Bitcoin itself.

Macro Context And Strategy

Kev argued that current macro conditions could be more supportive than in 2022, citing improving global liquidity and the absence of aggressive monetary tightening. He stated, "The bottom is already either in or it’s very, very close to being in."

Regarding personal strategy, Kev revealed he is actively accumulating Bitcoin and plans to continue buying through the end of the year. He noted he may adjust this plan if Bitcoin achieves "escape velocity" from the current bear market structure through a significant breakout.

Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) Chair Michael Saylor advised investors on Monday to adopt a long-term approach to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), stating they should not invest unless planning to hold the asset for more than four years. Saylor suggested an ideal holding period of 10 years, noting that short-term price predictors are traders rather than investors.

During a Q&A session with shareholders, Saylor acknowledged that the ongoing bear market has made conditions "tougher" but reaffirmed the company’s commitment to continuing its Bitcoin purchases. He cautioned that investors must be prepared for "difficult" years ahead, potentially needing to ride through months or even a year or two before conditions benefit the equity.

Why Saylor is Fixated on the 4-Year Horizon?

Saylor has frequently recommended analyzing a four-year blended measure of Bitcoin’s long-term value, which includes the 200-week moving average. This metric typically acts as a multi-year price floor or support level during major bear markets. As of this writing, the 200-week moving average stood at $64,014 according to NewHedge, with the price currently trading near that level.

Strategy Yet to Resume BTC Purchases

This advice coincides with a seven-week pause in Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition program. Despite raising $333.7 million through stock sales, the company has not resumed buying Bitcoin. The funds raised were allocated to repurchasing $132.2 million of STRC preferred shares, funding $52.4 million in STRC dividends, and adding roughly $150 million to its dollar reserve.

Earlier this month, Saylor predicted that Bitcoin would gain 30% annually for 20 years and potentially outperform the S&P 500 by roughly 1.5 to two times over the long term.

What the Numbers Show

The allocation of the recently raised capital highlights a strategic shift toward balance sheet management rather than immediate asset accumulation. Of the $333.7 million raised, approximately $184.6 million was directed toward shareholder returns and liquidity buffers ($132.2 million for share repurchases, $52.4 million for dividends, and $150 million for reserves), leaving no disclosed funds for immediate Bitcoin purchases during this seven-week hiatus.

At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $64,002.10, up 1.19% in the last 24 hours. Strategy shares rose 0.27% in after-hours trading after gaining 4.99% to close at $97.68 during Monday’s regular session. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that Strategy stock has underperformed with a weaker price trend across short, medium and long-term timeframes.