Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster estimates that Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) now accounts for about 5% of Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) revenue, up from roughly 3% in the previous quarter.
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.22 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of roughly $92.01 billion. This result marks a 106% year-over-year increase, while net income jumped 126%. Data Center revenue climbed 117% to $89 billion.
SpaceX Emerges As Major Nvidia Customer
Applied to Nvidia’s $96.2 billion in second-quarter revenue, Munster’s estimate puts SpaceX-related sales near $4.8 billion. Nvidia has not disclosed SpaceX’s contribution or identified the customer behind the accounting change. Its filing only said it moved one company into its largest cloud-and-internet customer group after a business-model change.
Munster wrote on X that the change "makes sense because SPCX is now a hyperscaler with 8GW coming online next year, same as $META and $AMZN." He noted that had SpaceX remained in Nvidia’s group for artificial intelligence cloud providers, industrial companies and enterprises (ACIE), that category would have grown 160% from a year earlier, versus Wall Street’s 130% expectation. Growth among the biggest cloud and internet companies would have been 83%, roughly matching expectations.
"This does not change the fact, the script has flipped to ACIE having higher growth rates going forward vs. hyperscaler," Munster said.
Nvidia separately said SpaceXAI will use its new Vera processors and expand Grok’s computing infrastructure with the Vera Rubin platform as it moves toward gigawatts of capacity. SpaceXAI also plans to use Nvidia technology in orbit through its first Starmind artificial intelligence satellite.
Earnings Results and Outlook
The chipmaker’s strong performance lifted shares by 4.71% to $219.53 in after-hours trading, following a close at $209.66. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, stating, "Now, compute is revenue." He described the buildout as being at "full steam" and noted that actual demand for Nvidia’s chips is far greater than 70%, though limited memory, power, and data center capacity are holding growth to that pace for now.
Looking ahead, Nvidia expects third-quarter revenue to range between $105.84 billion and $110.16 billion, representing 85.7% to 93.2% year-over-year growth from the $57.01 billion reported in the same quarter last year. This guidance comes in well above Wall Street’s $103.52 billion estimate. Gross margin held at 75% and is expected to ease to about 74% next quarter.
Crypto Bettors Skeptical on Price Target
Despite the blowout earnings, cryptocurrency bettors are skeptical that Nvidia will close above $250 by the end of August. Polygon-based Polymarket currently assigns only an 8% chance to this possibility, down from 50% the day before. The odds of NVDA closing above $240 on Aug. 31 were 23%, compared with an 84% probability of a close above $200.
The stock closed at $200.75 on the last trading day in July and has gained 4.4% month-to-date. Over a 30-day period, the stock has gained 6.69%. Year-to-date, the stock has risen 12.42%.
Huang Dismisses OpenAI Chip Challenge
On Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang brushed off OpenAI’s new Jalapeño chip during an appearance on CNBC’s Mad Money. Host Jim Cramer asked if Huang was offended that a company receiving billions in Nvidia investment was simultaneously developing a competing processor.
Huang said he was comfortable with the competition, pointing to the volatile nature of the AI-chip industry. "Lots of projects get started. Lots of projects get canceled," Huang said. "We’re here to support our partners and we’re going to build the world’s best technology." He added, "I don’t have to take anything personally," arguing that Nvidia has enough confidence in its technology and scale to compete.
OpenAI released benchmark results for Jalapeño, its first custom AI inference chip developed with Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), showing it delivered more AI work per unit of power than Nvidia’s GB300 in testing. However, Jalapeño is designed specifically for AI inference, not training, and was not tested against Nvidia’s newer Vera Rubin platform.
Despite growing custom AI chips from companies including Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Amazon.com, Inc., and Meta Platforms, Inc., Huang argued that Nvidia’s market position continues to strengthen. "Today Nvidia is increasing our market share of the AI market," Huang said. "Our growth is accelerating. Our technology leadership is extending."
Analyst Reactions
Prominent investors reacted strongly to the results. Jim Cramer dismissed concerns over margin pressure from rising memory costs, stating, "Ok, listen up pilgrims, Nvidia not going to stop here." He questioned whether a roughly 2% gross-margin impact from higher DRAM costs was sufficient reason to sell the stock.
Ross Gerber, president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, called Nvidia "undervalued," noting he had "never seen a company make $60 bil net in a qtr. up over 100%." Gerber suggested Nvidia could generate nearly $10 in earnings per share this year, implying a potential stock price around $450 based on a historical multiple of 45. The stock carries a consensus "Buy" rating from 30 analysts, with an average price target of $316 and a third-quarter target of $330.
Futurum Equities chief market strategist Shay Boloor highlighted broadening demand, with hyperscale revenue reaching $49 billion and ACIE revenue climbing to $40 billion. He noted that commitments jumped from roughly $119 billion to $279 billion in one quarter, while inventory rose to $32 billion, underscoring Nvidia’s aggressive push to secure HBM and other constrained components.
Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster described Nvidia’s outlook as the beginning of an AI "tsunami" of disruption, arguing that demand is spreading from hyperscalers to enterprises, industrial companies, and other customers.
Unprecedented Growth Trajectory
If Nvidia delivers on its $108 billion third-quarter guidance midpoint, the company would have grown revenue by roughly 1,730% in just four years, a pace unmatched by any company of its size in modern corporate history. Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter noted on X that "never in history has a company of this size grown at such a fast pace."
Even measured against the world’s biggest tech companies, Nvidia’s four-year growth stands in a category of its own:
| Company |
Revenue (~4 Yrs Ago) |
Upcoming Quarter Forecast |
4-Year Growth |
| Nvidia |
$5.9 billion |
$108 billion |
~1730% |
| Meta Platforms Inc. |
$27.7 billion |
$61 billion to $64 billion |
~131% |
| Apple Inc. |
$83 billion |
$111 billion to $113 billion |
~36% |
| Amazon.Com, Inc. |
$127.1 billion |
$197 billion to $202 billion |
~65% |
| Microsoft Corp. |
$50.1 billion |
$89.85 billion to $90.95 billion |
~81% |
| Tesla Inc.* |
$21.45 billion |
$27.61 billion (analyst estimate) |
~28% |
| Alphabet Inc.* |
$69.09 billion |
$123.83 (analyst estimate) |
~79% |
*Tesla and Alphabet figures are based on analyst consensus.
Congressional Trading Activity
Prior to the earnings release, trading data revealed a shift toward profit-taking among US lawmakers. Members of Congress executed 23 sell orders compared to 17 buy orders for Nvidia stock in 2026. While most transactions fell within the $1,000 to $15,000 range, larger sales outweighed larger purchases.
| Transaction Type |
Value Range |
Count |
| Buy Orders |
$50,000 to $100,000 |
1 |
| Buy Orders |
$250,000 to $500,000 |
1 |
| Sell Orders |
$15,000 to $50,000 |
3 |
| Sell Orders |
$50,000 to $100,000 |
1 |
| Sell Orders |
$100,000 to $250,000 |
2 |
Recent activity in May, June, and July highlighted this divergence, with nine sales versus five purchases. Sales ranged from $235,000 to $675,000, while purchases ranged from $5,000 to $75,000.
Market Context
The positive sentiment extended beyond Nvidia. Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) jumped about 13%, and CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) gained 10.49% after both companies reported better-than-expected results. Meanwhile, oil prices eased following an Iran-Oman agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude fell 0.24% to $82.03 per barrel, and Brent crude declined 0.13% to $87.73 per barrel.
What the Numbers Show
Nvidia’s actual revenue of $96.22 billion significantly surpassed the consensus estimate of $92.01 billion, marking a beat of over $4 billion. This operational strength contrasts with the earlier selling pressure observed among lawmakers, who had logged more sell orders than buys ahead of the report. The company’s forward guidance of up to $110.16 billion for the next quarter suggests continued high growth, maintaining the momentum that has driven its recent market leadership. The divergence between Nvidia’s 1,730% four-year growth rate and its peers’ single-digit or low-double-digit growth underscores its unique position in the current tech landscape. Additionally, gross margins remained robust at 75% in the quarter, up from 72.4% a year earlier, despite analyst warnings of slight pressure from rising memory costs. The emergence of SpaceX as a 5% revenue contributor highlights the broadening base of AI infrastructure spending beyond traditional hyperscalers.