Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann has initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy rating and a price target of $190, adding to a growing consensus of positive sentiment for the NASDAQ-listed company. This assessment follows separate initiations by Mizuho, Needham, UBS, and Wells Fargo, which assigned an Outperform rating with a $200 target, a Buy rating with a $200 target, a Buy rating with a $210 target, and an Overweight rating with a $230 target, respectively. All five firms project strong performance for the shares in the near term.

Coverage Details

The research evaluations categorize the stock as a Buy, Overweight, or Outperform, suggesting it is expected to outperform the market average.

SpaceX's record initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, 2026, has reignited debate about a broader recovery in the technology IPO market, offering a potential liquidity path for private equity firms. The aerospace company priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, with shares closing nearly 19% higher on the first day of trading. The debut valued SpaceX at approximately $2.3 trillion after underwriters exercised their full overallotment option, making it more valuable than Tesla. This event follows a three-year period where rising interest rates forced firms to rely on continuation funds and secondary transactions.

Starlink Drives Profitability and Growth

While SpaceX is historically known for reusable rockets, its financial profile is increasingly defined by Starlink. The satellite internet division generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, a 48% year-over-year increase, accounting for 61% of total company revenue. By Q1 2026, Starlink's revenue share climbed to 69%. Crucially, Starlink is the only profitable segment, reporting $4.42 billion in operating income in 2025, while the rocket business and AI division recorded losses. Analysts project Starlink revenue could reach $15.5 billion in 2026.

SpaceX has expanded its scope beyond launches by absorbing xAI earlier this year, folding Elon Musk's AI venture into its structure to support orbital data centers starting as early as 2028. However, execution risks remain, particularly with the Starship program, which completed only five flights in 2025 against a target of 25.

Market Performance and Investor Sentiment

The successful SpaceX debut has improved sentiment across private markets. According to Forge Global's June Private Market Update, the firm's equal-weighted index gained 11.7% in May, while its capitalization-weighted benchmark climbed 12.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. Buy-side indications of interest accounted for 71% of activity on Forge's marketplace in May, the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

Valuation and Future Catalysts

Despite the enthusiasm, SpaceX's valuation and projections face scrutiny. The company reported a nearly $5 billion GAAP loss in 2025 and plans up to $119 billion in capital spending. Underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have issued aggressive forecasts, with Morgan Stanley projecting revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040. For context, SpaceX revenue in 2025 was approximately $18.7 billion.

Looking ahead, SPCX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, 2026, an event analysts estimate could trigger roughly $4.3 billion in passive inflows. As of July 1, 2026, SPCX was trading at $170.86. Other private companies, including Anthropic and OpenAI, have reportedly filed confidential IPO paperwork, suggesting SpaceX may be the start of a sustained issuance cycle.