SpaceX shares have fallen approximately 32% from their all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, prompting Polymarket bettors to sharply reduce the odds of the stock holding above its $135 IPO price by the end of June. Traders now believe there is only a 35% chance the stock will end the month higher than its offer price, down from roughly 80% just a week earlier. This shift reflects growing anxiety after the stock lost more than 18% over the past week, closing at $153 on Thursday.

Short Sellers Pile In

Short sellers have increased bets on further declines after the stock pulled back from its early highs. Data from Ortex Technologies indicates short interest rose to 13% of SpaceX’s free float from 8% in the prior session. "Short interest in SpaceX is building remarkably fast for a stock that has only been public for a couple of weeks," said Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex.

Valuation and Analyst Caution

SpaceX’s valuation has appeared stretched relative to other megacap companies because it remains unprofitable and has generated far less revenue than similarly valued technology giants. Todd Schoenberger of Crosscheck Management warned at the debut that whether the stock remained a winner "remains to be seen." KeyBank initiated coverage without a price target, noting that while SpaceX has major growth avenues, much of that potential may already be reflected in the valuation.

Upcoming Catalysts

Several catalysts remain for investors. SpaceX is expected to join the Russell 1000 after Friday’s close, with Nasdaq 100 inclusion expected July 6 and the IPO quiet period ending July 7. The company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Aug. 17, providing the first official look at its public-market financials.

Starlink, the satellite internet unit of SpaceX, announced on Thursday that it will provide free internet through July 25 to customers in parts of Venezuela affected by two powerful earthquakes. The move aims to restore connectivity after damaged power and telecommunications networks left many people struggling to stay connected. The company is also working to rapidly deploy Starlink terminals to the hardest-hit areas.

Starlink stated on X that existing active customers in affected regions will automatically receive credits on their accounts. Customers who had previously canceled service will also receive credits to reactivate their connections. New customers in impacted areas who purchase a satellite kit can contact customer support after activation to receive free service through July 25. Additionally, customers whose Starlink equipment was damaged by the earthquakes can request a free replacement kit.

The announcement followed a sharp drop in internet connectivity across Venezuela on Wednesday. Internet monitoring group NetBlocks reported that magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes disrupted parts of the country’s communications infrastructure, causing a significant decline in connectivity. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency following reports of extensive infrastructure damage.

This initiative adds to Starlink’s growing role in disaster response. The company previously deployed portable Mini kits for search-and-rescue teams and provided a month of free service to customers affected by catastrophic flooding in Texas in July 2025. In 2024, SpaceX offered free Starlink service through the end of the year to victims of Hurricanes Helene and Milton and partnered with T-Mobile US Inc. to broadcast emergency alerts directly to phones in areas with damaged networks.

Elon Musk recently highlighted Starlink’s disaster-resilience capabilities after a Caribbean telecom provider partnered with SpaceX to maintain mobile services during hurricanes and major infrastructure failures. SpaceX shares fell 0.12% at $152.81 in after-hours trading on Thursday.