SpaceX shares have fallen approximately 29% from their high above $222 last week, prompting retail investors to scout for entry points. Nic Puckrin, analyst and founder of Coin Bureau, advises against viewing this decline as a second-chance buying opportunity. He argues that the drop reflects structural factors rather than value, noting that exaggerated moves are common for stocks with a small public float.

Lock-Up Period Risks

Puckrin highlights that the upcoming Q2 earnings report later this summer will trigger the expiration of the first 20% tranche of major holder lock-ups. This event introduces a steady flow of potential sellers as early investors often take profits once restrictions lift. The analyst cautions that this selling pressure could lead to further downside in the short term.

"What matters more is not SpaceX’s price relative to its day one open, but what comes next. And what comes next is its Q2 earnings report later this summer, at which point the first 20% tranche of major holder lock-ups will expire. That means potentially more selling pressure entering the market … further downside is entirely plausible in the short term," Puckrin said.

Supply Dynamics and Index Inclusion

While the recent sell-off reduces the likelihood of an additional 10% early unlock on the Q2 earnings date, Puckrin notes that hype could still drive retail FOMO. This sentiment can push prices quickly in the absence of liquidity. Furthermore, index inclusion means many investors will gain exposure to SpaceX automatically, making it crucial to consider the stock's price before making an active allocation.

"For retail investors, it’s therefore worth remembering that FOMO isn’t a solid investment strategy. Often, it pays to sit out the volatility until there is a clearer trajectory and the hype has died down," Puckrin advises.

Recent Price Action

SpaceX stock fell 16.43% to $154.60 on Monday, resulting in a $400.8 billion decline in market capitalization, marking the second-largest one-day value loss for a U.S. company. The space company's valuation now stands at approximately $2.04 trillion, ranking it as the seventh most valuable company in the world. Economist Peter Schiff noted that Elon Musk lost roughly $150 billion on paper during the session, a figure exceeding Warren Buffett’s total net worth of about $145 billion. Despite the significant loss, Musk remains the world's only trillionaire.

The recent decline continues a multi-day downward trend for SpaceX since its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) on June 12. Early investors who bought in at the IPO price of $135 remain profitable, while those who purchased after the first day of trading are facing losses. The stock closed at $160.95 on its debut, and the subsequent volatility has drawn comparisons to significant market corrections. The loss in value is equivalent to the combined market capitalizations of Palantir Technologies and Robinhood Markets, plus an additional $19.1 billion.

Financial Impact and Investor Reaction

SpaceX disclosed it had $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest bought 210,121 SpaceX shares across four ETFs on Monday, adding roughly $32.5 million worth of stock at the day’s closing price. The purchases extended Ark’s aggressive bet on SpaceX after it bought about 3.3 million shares on the company’s IPO day. Bullish investors are still betting Musk can drive long-term returns at SpaceX, though the company posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and lost $4.28 billion in the first quarter.

SpaceX shares were up 1.42% to $156.80 during the after-hours trading session on Monday.