President Donald Trump attributed rising gasoline prices to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and closures in Democratic-led states. This assertion aligns with his argument that domestic refinery issues, rather than geopolitical shipping disruptions, drive high fuel costs.

Trump's assessment of fuel price drivers

In a post on Truth Social, Trump identified two main factors behind current fuel costs. He argued that supply issues from the Strait of Hormuz are no longer the primary issue because "Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis." Instead, he pointed to "Refineries," specifically highlighting:

• Russian refineries: Being damaged by Ukraine, which Trump explicitly links to diesel supply pressure.
• US refineries: Being closed in "Blue States, like California," which he attributed to Democratic policies.

The comments came as fuel prices remain elevated across the U.S. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed the national average for regular gasoline at $4.3653 per gallon on Monday, up from $4.1459 a month earlier and $3.1339 a year ago. Diesel averaged $6.3207, up from $5.8819 a month earlier.

Kasparov challenges Trump's explanation

Russian chess grandmaster and political activist Garry Kasparov pushed back on Trump's argument, suggesting Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were not responsible for the latest jump in U.S. fuel prices. Kasparov wrote on X that diesel prices had remained stable during months of attacks on Russian refineries and "only spiked when Trump attacked Iran."

Iran war adds pressure to global oil markets

The dispute comes as the war involving Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments, while disruptions have raised concerns over crude and refined-fuel supplies. While Trump has attributed the rise in gasoline prices to domestic refinery closures, exports through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen 97% since the war began, Al Jazeera reported.

Meanwhile, Ukraine said that its strikes have disabled 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, though the figure has not been independently verified, ABC News reported. The G7 has agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel from emergency reserves over four months to ease pressure.

Diesel policy context

Separately, Trump plans to ease regulations on dyed diesel, a tax-exempt variety typically restricted to off-road use such as agriculture and construction. This move aims to reduce high diesel costs by broadening permitted uses, though specific regulatory mechanisms remain unspecified.

What the numbers show

The divergence between Trump’s attribution of price hikes to refinery closures and Kasparov’s claim that prices spiked only after the Iran attack highlights conflicting narratives on supply constraints. While Trump cites record barrel output from the Strait of Hormuz, data indicates exports through the strait have fallen 97% since the war began. Additionally, Ukraine’s claim of disabling 51% of Russia’s refining capacity contrasts with the administration’s focus on domestic US refinery closures as the primary driver for gasoline costs.

US diesel prices remain elevated despite a domestic production surplus, driven by distribution bottlenecks rather than supply shortages. Phillip Bruner, Professor of Practice of Sustainable Finance Education at the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business, stated that the core issue is that "fuel is in the wrong place."

The average diesel price stood at $6.3726 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA, following a peak of $6.5276 on September 22. Bruner explained that excess fuel is concentrated on the Gulf Coast, far from the higher-priced East and West Coast markets. Pipelines to the East Coast are heavily utilized, while the West Coast lacks a pipeline connection. Shipping is costly because US law generally requires scarce and expensive American-built tankers.

Export ban risks and global context

President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a diesel export ban. The administration has informed foreign allies, including the UK, about potential supply disruptions. On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron, chair of the G7 nations, announced that the group agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks over four months while pledging to avoid energy export restrictions. However, the Trump administration has not formally ruled out future export restrictions.

Bruner warned that a ban would do little to lower prices, stating it "would crater prices in Texas while the coasts keep buying imported diesel at world prices." He noted that such a ban could hurt Mexico and raise US grocery prices, as Mexico has limited diesel reserves and its trucks transport much of America’s produce. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US exported about 3.94 million barrels of distillate fuel oil in 2025, with Mexico, Chile and Brazil as top destinations.

Impact on other fuels

An export ban could trigger price rises for gasoline and jet fuel, as refiners cannot curtail diesel production without affecting other fuels. Trump acknowledged on Wednesday that a ban could raise gasoline prices while lowering diesel prices somewhat. The average gas price was $4.3961 per gallon on Friday.

Alternative solutions proposed

Bruner suggested that diplomacy offers a better solution than a ban. He recommended allowing foreign ships to transport fuel between US ports, reducing fuel taxes for truckers and farmers, and protecting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the resumption of Middle Eastern refineries. He emphasized that these measures would require "effective diplomacy."

What the numbers show

The data reveals a structural disconnect between production location and consumption demand. While the US produces more diesel than it consumes, the geographic concentration of this surplus on the Gulf Coast creates artificial scarcity on the coasts. This is evidenced by the divergence between the reported surplus and the record-high coastal prices ($6.3726 average). Furthermore, the reliance on Mexico for agricultural logistics highlights that an export ban intended to protect domestic consumers could inadvertently increase food costs, linking energy policy directly to grocery inflation.