A White House official has dismissed reports of a planned 90-day diesel export ban as "fake news," directly contradicting earlier reporting by POLITICO that the administration was actively preparing such a measure amid record national diesel prices.

The denial marks a sharp reversal from the picture painted by earlier accounts, which described the White House as actively formulating a 90-day ban on diesel exports to lower domestic fuel costs. National average diesel prices had reached a record $6.5276 per gallon, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), while gasoline stood at $4.4750 per gallon.

Background: what the earlier reports said

Prior reporting indicated that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had pushed back against the export ban proposal, arguing that such restrictions would raise gasoline and jet fuel prices rather than lower them. Trump energy adviser Jarrod Agen had attributed the price pressure to a refining capacity bottleneck, noting that while crude supply is sufficient, global refining capacity is constrained. Agen cited Russia's capacity as down 30-40%, with China operating below its maximum output.

In April, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to direct federal funding toward domestic coal power, LNG, petroleum refining, and power-grid infrastructure. Five presidential determinations signed allow the Energy Department to use funds secured under Trump's 2025 tax-and-spending law to address financing gaps and regulatory delays.

Regional prices and political pressure

Regional diesel price disparities had fuelled political debate, with Central Florida prices cited by Marjorie Taylor Greene nearing $7 per gallon. Greene had blamed Trump for surging fuel costs, linking the spike to his handling of the conflict with Iran, and argued that current prices contradicted campaign promises of gas under $2. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders also raised concerns over energy costs, citing heating oil and trucking expenses.

The following table shows diesel prices across Gulf Coast states compared to the national average, based on AAA data:

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan had cautioned that export restrictions may not result in significant price declines outside the Gulf Coast region, calling expectations of nationwide relief a "significant disconnect from reality." De Haan also flagged potential trade complications with Canada, noting that the USMCA trade agreement could complicate any export restriction. He further noted that oil producers have limited incentives to lower gasoline prices because they are accountable to shareholders, and new refining projects would take years to add capacity.

What the numbers show

A Brown University estimate found that the Iran war has cost U.S. consumers over $114 billion in higher energy prices. The White House's denial of the export ban reports removes a key policy option from the immediate debate, leaving DPA-funded infrastructure investment and refining capacity expansion as the primary levers under discussion. The internal disagreement between Wright's warnings about unintended consequences and Agen's structural refining diagnosis remains unresolved.

US national average diesel prices surged to a record $6.5107/gallon on Monday, driven by geopolitical disruptions and supply chain strains. President Donald Trump has called for a ban on diesel exports to lower domestic costs, stating that strikes on Russian refining capacity are a serious hit to Russia and diesel prices.

Political Response to Supply Disruptions

Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated the US may explore banning diesel exports if supply permits, suggesting it "might be one way of getting" prices down. Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene backed the Trump administration's plan on X, calling it an "America First" move.

Greene argued that home-produced fuel should be for Americans and "cheap," slamming oil companies for seeking "huge profits." She cited "absurd price gouging" for record highs and emphasized that working-class people are critical of the costs.

Analyst Warnings on Market Impact

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan criticized the potential move, warning it would send a "chilling" signal to the market. He urged policymakers to exercise "extreme caution," noting that controls might chase away traders.

Responding to Greene, De Haan stated a ban would "not be good at all for long term investments in refineries." He argued that refinery expansions, not government control over sales, would strengthen America. He cautioned that refineries could simply shift production to jet fuel, leading to "more market madness."

Global Context and Price Forecasts

The call for caution comes as global supply chains face strain. Russia imposed a diesel export ban until September 30. Reports suggest President Donald Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt strikes on Russian oil assets to prevent further disruptions.

De Haan projected that national average diesel prices could reach $7 in the coming days. He cited a noticeable jump in fuel costs within 48 hours, driven by the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Geopolitical Risks Escalate

Tensions have intensified with reports that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis may have struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. This infrastructure was built to bypass Strait of Hormuz disruptions during the 1980s. Trump reportedly declined a request from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for military support against the Houthis.

Oil, Gas Movement

According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price of gasoline on Monday was $4.4786/gallon, while diesel hit the record high.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November rose 1.41% to $93.67. Brent crude futures for November gained 1.68% to $102.03. Oil ETFs also reported growth, with the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) ETF rising 1.88% to $52.70 and the United States Oil Fund (USO) gaining 1.59% to $150.51.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between political intent and market mechanics is evident. While Thune and Greene view an export ban as a lever to reduce domestic costs, De Haan’s warning highlights the risk of exacerbating volatility. With prices already at a record $6.5107/gallon and forecasts pointing toward $7, any restriction on exports could tighten available supply further. The potential shift to jet fuel production suggests a ban might not lower diesel prices but could instead distort broader energy markets.