Shell CEO stated that Middle East oil flows are near 80% of prewar levels, according to a Bloomberg report on October 6, 2026. This assessment comes as ship tracker Kpler estimated crude exports from the region rose above pre-conflict levels, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and September 27 through September 29.

The divergence between the executive's estimate and the tracker's provisional data highlights uncertainty in supply visibility during escalating tensions. Kpler’s figures include volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, plus shipments from export terminals and ship-to-ship activity in the Gulf of Oman.

Shipping data shows surge in oil movement

According to a Reuters report citing provisional estimates from Kpler, the surge compares with an average of roughly 18 million bpd from March 2025 through February before fighting began. Kpler's seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at about 18.5 million bpd on October 1.

Broader seaborne volumes also remained elevated. Crude, refined products, chemicals, and other non-gas liquids averaged about 22.4 million bpd in the seven days ending September 30, based on Kpler figures. The data does not capture ships that may have crossed with AIS tracking switched off. Notably, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said last week that Iran had loaded "zero" barrels of oil due to U.S. economic restrictions.

Attacks on ships escalate

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency, multiple incidents have occurred since September 30 in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. UKMTO reported on Monday that multiple explosions were sighted in close proximity, about 60 nautical miles south of Al Mukha, Yemen (roughly 69 miles), in addition to a tanker being struck in the Strait of Hormuz on October 4.

The attacks come as Iranian Security Chief Mohsen Rezaee pushed back against Donald Trump's claims that Iran was close to surrendering to the U.S. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei also said that heavy blows suffered by the U.S. at the hands of Tehran will eventually force it out of the Middle East.

Oil prices and fuel costs

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contracts expiring in November 2026 slipped 1.32% to $89.91. Brent futures contracts ending in November were also down 0.79% to $101.44 at press time.

During pre-market trading on Monday, United States Oil Fund slipped 1.63% to $145, while ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil was down 0.97% to $53.89.

The national average gas price in the U.S. continued to fall, with data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Monday showing the national average at $4.3653/gallon. The national average price of diesel remained above $6/gallon at $6.3207.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) analyst Nikhil Bhandari stated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to stabilize in the second half of next year. This normalization is expected to result in crude oil prices settling around $80/bbl.

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Bhandari noted that oil flows out of the Middle East have reportedly exceeded pre-war levels. He explained that refineries outside the Middle East and Russia would reach maximum stretch levels by March next year. Conversely, refinery operations within the Middle East and Russia could take longer to recover due to infrastructure damage.

Market Dynamics and Pricing

The analyst highlighted that despite the stabilization of flow volumes, the crack spread, which represents the profit refineries earn from converting crude oil into fuel, must remain significantly higher than the usual $20 spread. Bhandari attributed recent increases in oil movement partly to dark fleet activity.

Policy Restrictions and Supply Risks

Bhandari addressed the potential impact of government interventions on fuel markets, specifically regarding diesel export bans considered by the Trump administration. While President Donald Trump later ruled out a ban, he signed an executive order allowing the temporary sale of red-dyed diesel for highway use to address high fuel prices.

Regarding global supply constraints, the analyst identified a high probability that China would restrict its product exports. He cited heavily depleted domestic product inventories within China as the primary driver for this potential shift in focus away from exports.

US Refinery Implications

In the United States context, Bhandari warned that restricting exports could inadvertently pressure gasoline prices upward. He noted that limiting the 1.5 million barrels of daily exports would likely force refinery run cuts, thereby reducing domestic supply availability.

Key Forecasts

The divergence between volume recovery and price stability suggests that logistical bottlenecks and refining capacity constraints will continue to support elevated margins even as physical supply routes reopen.