Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk has described the development of human-like robot hands as "shockingly difficult," stating that no existing design, not even a demonstration, can perform basic tasks like driving a screw into wood.

Musk made these remarks during an interview with Tesla Owners Silicon Valley on Saturday. He highlighted that even simple actions, such as signing one's name, require extraordinarily precise finger movements that current robotic technology struggles to replicate reliably.

Engineering Challenges and Production Bottlenecks

The complexity of robotic hands poses a significant hurdle for Tesla, which plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 1 million Optimus robots. Musk previously predicted that the Optimus line could eventually account for approximately 80% of the company's total value.

According to Musk, driving a self-tapping screw into wood is particularly challenging because it requires applying considerable force while maintaining precise control. He noted that touch sensors are prone to damage or wear after repeated movements, unlike human fingers which can repair themselves.

Research firm TrendForce identified Optimus's complex hands as a major production bottleneck in an October 8 report. The firm stated that the hands still require extensive manual assembly, and manufacturing consistency along with sensor reliability need improvement.

Competing Approaches in Robotics

Other robotics companies are addressing dexterity challenges with different strategies:

• Boston Dynamics: The company opted for four fingers instead of five for its Atlas humanoid robot. It explained that adding a fifth finger would increase costs and potential failure points without providing sufficient benefit for industrial tasks.
• Citrini Research: In September, the research firm argued that basic humanoid walking and running were largely solved problems. However, complex dexterity remains much harder, though simpler repetitive tasks could become commercially viable before robots achieve human-level capabilities.

Musk contrasted these approaches by describing Optimus as a general-purpose robot intended to perform a broad range of human activities, including those requiring fine finger control.

Production Timeline and Market Sentiment

Tesla announced in January that it planned to begin producing its third-generation Optimus before the end of 2026. Musk acknowledged on Saturday that the initial production ramp would be extremely slow due to engineering challenges and the need to establish a supply chain for specialized robot components.

Market sentiment reflects caution regarding the timeline. On prediction market platform Kalshi, traders placed the probability of Tesla offering Optimus to the public before the end of 2026 at just 7%, with approximately $401,000 traded on the contract. This contract specifically concerns public sales rather than robots deployed internally at Tesla.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Tesla’s long-term valuation target and near-term market expectations highlights the scale of the execution risk. While Musk projects that Optimus could represent 80% of Tesla's value, the market currently assigns only a 7% probability to public availability by the end of 2026. This gap underscores that while the strategic ambition is high, the immediate commercial viability is constrained by unresolved hardware complexities, specifically in hand dexterity and sensor durability.

Tesla Inc is under regulatory scrutiny after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) received a petition alleging its robotaxis exceeded speed limits in active school zones, with the agency opening an evaluation on October 9.

The petition was filed on September 23 and the NHTSA evaluation became public on Monday, two days after Tesla announced an eightfold expansion of its Austin Cybercab fleet. The petitioner submitted three video links as evidence of alleged speeding by 2026 Model Y and Cybercab vehicles. NHTSA estimates the review covers 1,000 vehicles. Agency records list four incidents, including three social media reports, but no crashes, injuries, or fatalities. Regulators have not decided whether to launch a formal investigation.

Key details of the NHTSA evaluation

The following table summarises the key parameters of the ongoing regulatory review:

Tesla separately faces an NHTSA investigation into how it certified its steering-wheel-free Cybercab under federal vehicle safety standards. Tesla said on Saturday it had more than 300 Cybercabs serving Austin. A subsequent NHTSA order published on September 29 gave Tesla an extension to furnish its response regarding Cybercab certification, moving the deadline to October 30.

Owner credits safety features after crash

Amid the regulatory scrutiny, Tesla CEO Elon Musk highlighted a customer testimonial reinforcing the company's safety narrative. On Monday, user Jeff Fantin posted on X that he and his son survived a freeway accident while returning from a Tesla Owners Silicon Valley event. "My son and I are sitting in the ER alive tonight thanks to my Tesla and God's grace," Fantin said, crediting the vehicle's safety features.

Maye Musk, Elon Musk's mother, quoted the post on October 12, stating, "Remembering when Tesla was just starting, Elon would say Safety First." She added that this approach saved their lives and would save many others. Elon Musk subsequently replied, "Your safety has always been priority 1 at Tesla and SpaceX," reaffirming the company's design philosophy across both ventures.

Speeding concerns stretch back to 2025

Concerns about Tesla robotaxi speeds are not new. A Reuters reporter observed a Tesla robotaxi travelling 40 to 45 mph in a 35 mph zone beside the Texas School for the Deaf during the company's June 2025 launch. Signs warned motorists about deaf pedestrians, although Reuters did not establish whether an active school-zone speed restriction applied at the time. NHTSA also contacted Tesla following videos showing apparent traffic violations during that launch.

Speed limit compliance has attracted scrutiny in Europe as well. A Belgian study found Tesla's supervised Full Self-Driving software exceeded legal limits on 55% of tested Brussels road segments, while Tesla pressed European regulators to accelerate approval. The European system requires driver supervision, whereas Tesla's US robotaxi service still uses human safety monitors in some operations.

CEO Elon Musk addressed the risk of regulatory intervention during Tesla's July 22, 2026, earnings call. "If we injure even one person, it will be worldwide headline news," he said. "And regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities."

Prediction markets reflect uncertain expansion outlook

Prediction markets indicate an uneven rollout for Tesla's robotaxis. The following table captures current market probabilities for key milestones:

The Cybercab retail sale contract on Polymarket requires an actual retail transaction, not merely the addition of Cybercabs to Tesla's robotaxi fleet. TSLA shares were down 1.07% to $373.99 during pre-market trading on Tuesday.