Indian benchmark indices are poised for a muted start on January 12, with early indicators suggesting flat opening conditions. The GIFT Nifty, trading steady at around 25,808.50, provides the primary cue for domestic market direction amid mixed global signals.

Domestic Market Performance

Indian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak for a fifth consecutive session on January 9. Market sentiment remained subdued due to uncertainty surrounding the US Supreme Court's verdict on Trump tariffs, which was expected later that day.

For the week, both BSE Sensex and Nifty recorded losses of 2.50% each, reflecting the sustained selling pressure across Indian markets.

Global Market Developments

Asian equities opened higher following positive momentum from US markets, where stocks reached new highs on Friday after favorable jobs data. The performance was supported by expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy decisions.

US markets delivered strong performance with major indices posting gains across the board:

The S&P 500 rallied to a record high close, lifted by Broadcom and other chipmakers, while weaker-than-expected jobs data had minimal impact on Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations.

Currency and Commodity Movements

The dollar edged lower in Asian trading after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the US central bank had received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department. Most Asian currencies traded higher in early Monday sessions, with Thai Baht leading gains, followed by Japanese Yen, Singapore Dollar, Philippines Peso, and Taiwan Dollar. Indonesian Rupiah was the only exception among major Asian currencies.

Commodity markets showed upward momentum with oil prices extending gains due to growing concerns about potential supply disruptions from Iran amid intensifying protests. Gold rose to record highs as US jobs data maintained expectations for additional interest rate cuts while geopolitical tensions remained elevated.

Institutional Investment Flows

Foreign and domestic institutional investor activity showed contrasting patterns on January 9:

Foreign institutional investors extended their selling streak, while domestic institutional investors provided crucial support by purchasing equities worth approximately ₹5,596 crore, helping offset some of the foreign outflow pressure.

Market Outlook

With GIFT Nifty indicating a flat opening and mixed global cues, Indian markets are likely to witness cautious trading in the near term. The ongoing uncertainty regarding US policy decisions and sustained foreign institutional selling remain key factors influencing market sentiment.

The Indian stock market witnessed its fifth consecutive session of decline on Friday, January 9, as investor sentiment remained cautious amid US tariff worries and anticipated Q3 earnings season. The Sensex dropped 605 points or 0.72% to close at 83,576.24, while the Nifty 50 shed 194 points or 0.75% to finish at 25,683.30. Broader market indices reflected similar weakness, with the BSE Midcap index declining 0.90% and the Smallcap index plunging 1.74%. Despite this bearish trend, Choice Broking's Executive Director Sumeet Bagadia has identified five breakout stocks presenting potential investment opportunities.

Market Outlook and Technical Analysis

Nifty 50 Performance

According to Bagadia, the Nifty 50 opened weak and extended its decline throughout the session, indicating persistent selling pressure and bearish sentiment. The index briefly breached the key support level of 25,800.00 and confirmed a decisive breakdown below this zone, eventually closing at 25,683.00, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

The daily RSI at 38.55 continues trending lower, reflecting deteriorating momentum and lack of buying strength. India VIX increased by 3.07% to 10.92, suggesting marginal pickup in volatility and cautious market sentiment. Bagadia noted that as long as Nifty holds above 25,600.00, a selective buy-on-dips strategy may be considered with strict stop-losses at 25,500.00.

Bank Nifty Analysis

The Bank Nifty opened flat but witnessed a sharp bearish move of nearly 590 points, registering an intraday low at 59,154.00. This price action suggests the index is undergoing a short-term consolidation-to-correction phase after recent gains. Immediate resistance is placed in the 59,500.00-59,600.00 zone, while the 59,000.00-58,900.00 support band remains critical for maintaining near-term stability.

Recommended Breakout Stocks

Bagadia has identified five breakout stocks that have moved past their established support or resistance levels, potentially signaling strong price movements ahead.

CCL Products (India)

CCL Products has recently delivered an upside breakout from a five-day sideways consolidation, indicating improving strength. The stock has also achieved a falling trendline breakout and continues trading above its key 100 and 200 EMAs, reflecting downside support.

KSB Limited

KSB has consolidated in a sideways range before delivering a breakout with strong close above the previous seven trading sessions' range. The RSI at 51.49 signals improving momentum, with immediate support near ₹750.00 aligned with the 20-day EMA.

HCL Technologies

HCL Technologies has taken strong support after a recent decline and staged a sharp upside move. The stock trades above its key 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, indicating a positive trend. A breakout above the previous lower high signals trend reversal.

Endurance Technologies and Ramco Cements

Endurance Technologies has seen accumulation at lower levels and continues trading above its 200-day EMA, forming a strong base. Ramco Cements shows strength after delivering a falling trendline breakout, forming higher highs and higher lows on the 1-hour timeframe with RSI at 63.04 reflecting rising momentum.

Risk Management Strategy

All recommendations come with disciplined risk management protocols, including specific stop-loss levels to protect against downside risks. Bagadia emphasizes the importance of appropriate risk management despite identifying these breakout opportunities in the current market environment. Investors are advised to consider these technical recommendations alongside their individual risk tolerance and investment objectives.