SpaceX’s record $1.7 trillion IPO has not triggered a broader wave of venture-backed listings, leaving investors with limited exit options despite strong dealmaking.

The U.S. venture capital exit market remains constrained, with only 18 companies going public in the third quarter of 2026, according to PitchBook and the National Venture Capital Association. Most listings were in healthcare, while the broader startup ecosystem continues to face liquidity challenges.

Dealmaking surges while exits stagnate

U.S. venture capital deal value reached $515.8 billion through the third quarter, approximately 44% above the previous full-year record set in 2021. Artificial intelligence accounted for a record 82.7% of this total, yet this investment boom has not translated into a comparable surge in public offerings.

PitchBook noted that while dealmaking looks strong on paper, the market is seizing up on the exit side, reshaping investor behavior and fund dynamics.

Unicorn valuations face reality check

The U.S. currently hosts 992 active unicorns, privately held companies valued at $1 billion or more, with a combined valuation of $5.7 trillion. Many lack a clear path to liquidity as the public listing market remains sluggish.

Acquisitions are occurring, but often at significant discounts to previous valuations:

These markdowns highlight the risks for venture investors as companies remain private longer, making earlier funding round valuations difficult to defend against market-based prices.

LPs concentrate capital with established managers

The shortage of exits is altering where venture capital flows. Limited partners, reliant on distributions from successful exits to replenish capital, are increasingly concentrating funds with established managers.

Established firms captured 88.2% of U.S. venture capital fundraising year to date, the highest share in PitchBook’s dataset. Andreessen Horowitz alone raised $23.8 billion, accounting for more than 20% of total U.S. venture fundraising this year.

PitchBook attributed this concentration to limited partners "starved for distributions" who are re-upping with managers who have delivered previously.

What the numbers show

A striking divergence exists between investment volume and exit velocity. While AI drives deal value to record highs, the actual number of public listings remains low, creating a backlog that pressures returns. The market is defined by an imbalance where private valuations continue to rise, but realized returns remain elusive due to the structural bottleneck in exits.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares rose 0.27% to $168.05 in overnight trading on Wednesday after Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $230. The move follows comments from TV host Jim Cramer, who described the company as a "real company with real numbers," highlighting its expanding role in the artificial intelligence infrastructure market.

Goldman Sachs and Cramer endorse valuation

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) increased its price target for SpaceX to $230, up from the previous $220 target. This revision aligns with broader analyst conviction that the company’s enterprise AI initiatives are gaining traction. Jim Cramer, speaking on CNBC's "Mad Money," stated that SpaceX could benefit investors "a lot earlier than Tesla ever did." He pointed to Goldman's target bump as ratification of the stock's momentum, noting that such adjustments rarely occur once speculative interest peaks.

Cramer emphasized that Elon Musk has made "very smart moves" by renting out excess AI compute powered by NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) chips. He noted that Musk purchased these chips at "extortionate prices" but is now generating significant returns through deals with major tech firms, including Anthropic and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Cramer remarked, "SpaceX could end up being NVIDIA's largest client at this pace," suggesting a symbiotic relationship where SpaceX's demand for hardware supports NVIDIA's sales while SpaceX monetizes its capacity.

Compute leasing drives financial upside

The primary driver of this renewed bullishness is the economics of ground-based AI computing power. TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge previously initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, predicting that leasing of AI compute will outgrow every other business line. By the first quarter of 2027, Blackledge expects this segment to contribute more than half of total revenue. Capacity is forecast to rise from 2.1 gigawatts this year to 6 gigawatts by the end of 2027.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, arguing that investors are misjudging SpaceX by focusing on headline multiples. While the stock trades at approximately 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, compared to roughly 16 times for mega-cap AI peers, the multiple drops to 0.3 times EV/EBIT-to-growth. This is roughly 40% below the median for mega-cap AI enablers, which stands at 0.5 times.

Sum-of-the-parts and revenue sensitivity

Jonas estimates the current share price largely reflects SpaceX’s space and connectivity businesses, valued by Morgan Stanley at $127 per share. The remaining value represents the market’s valuation for the company’s AI initiatives, implying a multiple of about 3 times 2028 sales. In contrast, Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts model assigns a much higher value to the AI segment, allocating $165 per share to enterprise AI even after applying a 50% discount for execution risk. Connectivity is valued at $118, while external launch services and X/Grok each contribute $8.

The primary variable influencing future revenue is compute pricing and deployment volume. Visible Alpha consensus assumes pricing of $17.60 per watt across 4.1 gigawatts of capacity. Jonas highlights that each additional $10 per watt would add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue, representing over one-third of the fiscal 2027 total, without any change in deployed compute. Recent short-term neocloud contracts were reportedly priced between $30 and $50 per watt. Additionally, rental pricing for NVIDIA Blackwell B300 chips has risen more than 50% this year, according to a Compute Desk index cited in the note.

What the numbers show

A significant divergence exists between market pricing and internal valuation models regarding the AI segment. While the market effectively pays $32 for AI capabilities (implied by the pre-rally price minus the $127 space/connectivity value), Morgan Stanley values this same segment at $165 per share. This suggests the current share price may not yet reflect the potential upside from enterprise AI adoption, assuming execution risks are managed. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis reveals that a mere $10 increase in per-watt pricing could boost consensus revenue by over 33%, indicating that pricing power, rather than just capacity expansion, is a critical driver for near-term financial performance.

Catalysts and investor sentiment

Investor interest remains low, with Jonas noting that none of his 40 surveyed clients owned the stock. He views lockup expiries as non-events and expects the stock to test $100 only if there is a clear slowdown in AI progress or severe Starship setbacks. Key upcoming catalysts include Starship Flight 15, expected in late October or early November, and third-quarter earnings in late October. These events will provide initial insights into the economics of Cursor and Grok Bot, with Grok versions 4.8, 4.9, and 5.0 scheduled before year-end.