Anthropic, led by Dario Amodei, filed a draft Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, marking the first step toward its initial public offering. This filing preceded Sam Altman’s OpenAI, which submitted its confidential Form S-1 a week later. While the filings generated significant market interest regarding the timing of the debuts, recent data from prediction markets suggests uncertainty about the immediate timeline for Anthropic’s public listing.

Prediction Market Signals

Polymarket, a prediction platform built on Polygon that uses the USDC stablecoin for wagering, tracks the likelihood of Anthropic’s IPO through specific contracts. Over $1.56 million has been bet on the "Anthropic IPO by __?" contract to date.

The probability of an imminent public debut has declined sharply. Bettors currently assign a 2% probability to Anthropic going public by September 15, 2026, representing a 33% drop in odds. The chance of a listing by September 30, 2026, stands at 11%, down 75%. Conversely, confidence increases for later dates: odds rise to 70% for October 31, 2026 (up 27%) and peak at 85% for December 31, 2026, indicating market belief that the company will go public within the calendar year.

OpenAI Delays Debut

In contrast to Anthropic’s filing progress, OpenAI may not make its public debut this year. Reports indicate that OpenAI has delayed its IPO to next year after being advised to wait out volatile market conditions. This decision comes as investors closely monitor the post-listing performance of other high-profile technology companies, including SpaceX.

Valuation Context

Investment bankers are constructing a valuation framework for Anthropic that anticipates annual revenues between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028. This long-term forecast significantly exceeds the company's updated annualized revenue run rate of more than $65 billion, which has surpassed the approximately $47 billion reported in May. Bankers are applying enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on these forward-looking estimates in preparation for the offering.

Anthropic's revenue growth has accelerated rapidly. The run rate stood at approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025 before climbing to more than $47 billion by May. For the second quarter of 2026, Anthropic expects revenue of at least $10.9 billion, more than double the previous quarter. This performance places the company on track to report its first operating profit, estimated at $559 million.

Comparable Valuation Benchmarks

Bankers reference publicly traded companies such as Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR), Cloudflare Inc. (NYSE: NET), and Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) to establish valuation multiples. According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, Palantir trades at 53 times expected 2026 revenue, while Cloudflare trades at 41.6 times. SpaceX serves as a reference for companies valued primarily on future growth potential rather than current earnings.

Market Skepticism

Despite bullish projections, market participants express caution regarding valuation sustainability. David Merkel, a principal at Aleph Investments, questioned whether the underlying mathematics supports a potential $2 trillion valuation over time. He noted uncertainty about whether artificial intelligence produces sufficient additional productivity to justify current price premiums, stating, "Could they get a $2 trillion valuation, yeah they could, and I just wonder if it would stay there over time."

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Anthropic's current run rate of more than $65 billion and its 2028 forecast highlights aggressive growth assumptions embedded in the IPO valuation case. While the company achieved a tenfold annual increase in revenue run rate for three consecutive years through early 2026, the projection to reach $200 billion by 2028 implies continued exponential scaling. The reliance on comparables like SpaceX, which are valued on future potential rather than current earnings, suggests that the valuation model prioritizes long-term market capture over near-term profitability metrics.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said artificial intelligence could help cure most human diseases within five to 10 years, arguing that the industry must deliver real breakthroughs in medicine rather than rely on optimistic messaging.

Amodei made the comments in a post on X, responding to criticism that his public messaging has focused disproportionately on AI risks. He cited his 2024 essay "Machines of Loving Grace," which challenged skepticism about AI's potential in health and biology. He also referenced a June 2026 essay, "Policy on the AI Exponential," where he proposed streamlining Food and Drug Administration (FDA) processes to prevent regulatory delays for AI-accelerated drugs.

Personal Motivation and Industry Trust

Amodei linked his urgency to personal experience, noting his father died from Hepatitis C shortly before direct-acting antiviral drugs like sofosbuvir were developed. He stated these drugs could cure 95% of patients and likely would have cured his father.

He acknowledged that predicting cures for most diseases within five to 10 years may sound far-fetched to the public and biologists. However, he emphasized that Anthropic is rapidly increasing efforts in biology and medicine, expecting "early glimmers" of progress in coming months.

What the Numbers Show

The data highlights a divergence between public perception and industry action. Amodei noted that public skepticism reflects a broader crisis of trust in companies and governments. He argued that marketing campaigns promising future benefits are insufficient to counter this skepticism. Instead, he stated that actual cures, such as curing cancer, would be more meaningful than promises. He admitted that AI companies deserve criticism for not yet delivering on their biggest promises, placing the responsibility on the industry to produce tangible results.

Regulatory and Strategic Outlook

Amodei stressed that medical impact requires not just capable AI but also regulatory changes. He proposed ways to streamline FDA processes so that waves of AI-accelerated drugs are not unnecessarily slowed.

He intends to continue speaking honestly about both AI's potential benefits and risks. Amodei said credibility will ultimately come from tangible results rather than promises, and Anthropic will publicize achievements in biology and medicine when they materialize.