Anthropic would need to generate roughly $1.2 trillion in annual revenue within a decade to justify a potential $2 trillion valuation, according to NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran.

The target is roughly 18 times Anthropic’s July revenue run rate of more than $65 billion and 1.7 times the $716.9 billion in sales generated by Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) last year.

Valuation Assumptions

Damodaran worked backward from the $2 trillion figure to calculate the growth and profitability Anthropic would need to deliver for that price to make financial sense. A May funding round valued Anthropic at $965 billion, with existing investors reportedly believing it could command $2 trillion or more in an initial public offering.

Damodaran grants generous assumptions: a 30% after-tax operating margin, a 10% cost of capital and 10 years to maturity. Even then, justifying a $2 trillion valuation requires about $1.2 trillion in year-10 revenue, implying $360 billion in after-tax operating income.

If regulation or slower adoption stretches maturity to 15 years, the requirement approaches $2 trillion. Even after hitting its 2028 target of $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue, Anthropic would need to grow around 25% a year for another eight years.

Market Dynamics

Damodaran pegs the entire current market for AI products and services at roughly $250 billion. If AI remains mainly a productivity tool, that market stays capped, because companies pay for it on top of wages.

The multitrillion-dollar opportunity appears only if AI replaces expensive workers across industries and countries. That shift would likely bring job losses, political resistance and regulation that could slow the very growth the valuation requires.

Polymarket traders think there is a 72% chance that Anthropic has the best AI model by the end of the year. OpenAI is in second with 9%. Remaining at the top is crucial if Anthropic is to generate the extraordinary revenue needed to justify a $2 trillion valuation.

Amazon’s Exposure

Amazon’s exposure could grow substantially. The company has invested $13 billion in Anthropic and agreed in April to invest up to another $20 billion if the AI startup reaches undisclosed commercial milestones, potentially bringing its total investment to $33 billion.

The expanded partnership also commits Anthropic to spend more than $100 billion on AWS technologies over the next decade and secure up to five gigawatts of capacity using Amazon’s Trainium chips.

Amazon recorded $53.4 billion in second-quarter non-operating pre-tax other income, primarily from its investments in Anthropic, nearly twice its $27.5 billion operating income.

What the Numbers Show

Amazon’s Q2 non-operating pre-tax other income of $53.4 billion was nearly twice its operating income of $27.5 billion. This indicates that Amazon’s reported profitability in the quarter was driven significantly by valuation gains from its investment in Anthropic rather than core operational performance.

Anthropic is set to add Citigroup to its list of top-tier investment banks for its highly anticipated initial public offering. The artificial intelligence developer expands its underwriting team as it prepares for a major public market debut.

Bank Involvement and IPO Strategy

The inclusion of Citigroup strengthens the syndicate leading the share sale. Previously, reports indicated that Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan were working on Anthropic’s IPO, with the company holding discussions with investors in recent weeks.

Earlier this month, it was reported that Anthropic was seeking new financing to increase its existing $2.5 billion five-year revolving credit facility obtained from lenders last year. The previous facility included participation from Morgan Stanley, Barclays Plc, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Royal Bank of Canada, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.

Anthropic is set to expand its pre-IPO revolving credit facility to a value exceeding $10 billion. While the final size of the facility has yet to be confirmed, sources indicate plans could change, with the possibility of keeping the revolver at its original target or scaling it back below $10 billion.

Expanding credit facilities before an IPO is a common move for companies preparing to enter public markets. The same banks that extend these credit lines often serve as underwriters for the share sale. Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) followed a similar approach, increasing its credit facility with several of its IPO bankers roughly a month before its June public offering.

What the Numbers Show

The scaling of the credit facility to over $10 billion indicates a high level of institutional confidence and capital availability for Anthropic. This figure serves as a key indicator of the financial scale at which the company is operating prior to its public debut. The move aligns with broader trends in AI-related debt financing, which JPMorgan projects will reach $4.1 trillion through 2030, up from previous estimates. AI-related debt issuance has already surpassed $300 billion in 2026, driven by hyperscalers, data center developers, and chip buyers funding unprecedented capital spending.