Anthropic abandoned its planned $7 billion acquisition of MatX, according to sources familiar with the matter. The deal was reportedly in progress before being called off.

Deal Details

The proposed transaction valued MatX at $7 billion. Sources indicate that Anthropic had actively planned the purchase but ultimately decided to abandon the deal.

No further financial terms or operational details regarding the termination were disclosed in the report.

Anthropic is considering allowing shareholders to sell stakes in its upcoming initial public offering, marking a significant departure from the SpaceX playbook. This structural shift could impact dilution dynamics for existing investors as the AI firm prepares for a debut that may raise up to $100 billion.

Updated Filing Timeline and Underwriters

The company, led by Dario Amodei, filed a draft Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1. Bloomberg reports that Anthropic now expects to complete the public filing process by late August. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are reportedly working on the IPO, with other banks potentially added to the roster. Anthropic has been holding discussions with investors in recent weeks as it gears up for the debut.

SpaceX targeted $75 billion for its IPO and ultimately raised about $86.2 billion once the overallotment option was exercised. Anthropic aims to rival or exceed this figure, highlighting significant investor enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence industry. Details surrounding the IPO, including the final size, remain subject to change.

Prediction Market Signals

Polymarket, a prediction platform built on Polygon that uses the USDC stablecoin for wagering, tracks the likelihood of Anthropic’s IPO through specific contracts. Over $1.56 million has been bet on the "Anthropic IPO by __?" contract to date.

The probability of an imminent public debut has declined sharply. Bettors currently assign a 2% probability to Anthropic going public by September 15, 2026, representing a 33% drop in odds. The chance of a listing by September 30, 2026, stands at 11%, down 75%. Conversely, confidence increases for later dates: odds rise to 70% for October 31, 2026 (up 27%) and peak at 85% for December 31, 2026, indicating market belief that the company will go public within the calendar year.

Revenue Growth and Valuation Context

Anthropic’s rapid expansion has been driven largely by growing demand from businesses using Claude for coding, research, automation, and other enterprise applications. The company’s annualized revenue run rate reportedly surged to $65 billion by the end of July. This places it ahead of OpenAI, whose annualized revenue reached about $40 billion.

In May, Anthropic overtook OpenAI as the world’s most valuable startup after raising $65 billion in Series H funding, valuing the company at $965 billion. Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital led the funding round.

Investment bankers are constructing a valuation framework for Anthropic that anticipates annual revenues between $190 billion and $200 billion by 2028. This long-term forecast significantly exceeds the current annualized revenue run rate of more than $65 billion, which surpassed the approximately $47 billion reported in May. Bankers are applying enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on these forward-looking estimates.

Anthropic's revenue growth has accelerated rapidly. The run rate stood at approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025 before climbing to more than $47 billion by May. For the second quarter of 2026, Anthropic expects revenue of at least $10.9 billion, more than double the previous quarter. This performance places the company on track to report its first operating profit, estimated at $559 million. New data indicates Q2 revenue reached $11.6 billion, exceeding earlier expectations.

Comparable Valuation Benchmarks

Bankers reference publicly traded companies such as Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR), Cloudflare Inc. (NYSE: NET), and Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) to establish valuation multiples. According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, Palantir trades at 53 times expected 2026 revenue, while Cloudflare trades at 41.6 times. SpaceX serves as a reference for companies valued primarily on future growth potential rather than current earnings.

Market Skepticism and Governance

Despite bullish projections, market participants express caution regarding valuation sustainability. David Merkel, a principal at Aleph Investments, questioned whether the underlying mathematics supports a potential $2 trillion valuation over time. He noted uncertainty about whether artificial intelligence produces sufficient additional productivity to justify current price premiums, stating, "Could they get a $2 trillion valuation, yeah they could, and I just wonder if it would stay there over time."

Dr Chan Ahn, founder and CEO of Tessera PE, noted that such a valuation requires investors to underwrite an extraordinary combination of growth and margin expansion. He highlighted the "first earnings report" as the biggest IPO risk, when companies face tougher scrutiny from public-market investors.

Ahead of the public filing, Anthropic is set to finalize a revolving credit facility that will come in above its roughly $10 billion target, expanding on the financing it pursued in July. It has also previously been reported that CEO Dario Amodei could receive super-voting shares ahead of the AI company’s IPO, giving him and other co-founders greater control even as their ownership stakes remain relatively small.

OpenAI Delays Debut

In contrast to Anthropic’s filing progress, OpenAI may not make its public debut this year. Reports indicate that OpenAI has delayed its IPO to next year after being advised to wait out volatile market conditions. This decision comes as investors closely monitor the post-listing performance of other high-profile technology companies, including SpaceX.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Anthropic's current run rate of more than $65 billion and its 2028 forecast highlights aggressive growth assumptions embedded in the IPO valuation case. While the company achieved a tenfold annual increase in revenue run rate for three consecutive years through early 2026, the projection to reach $200 billion by 2028 implies continued exponential scaling. The reliance on comparables like SpaceX, which are valued on future potential rather than current earnings, suggests that the valuation model prioritizes long-term market capture over near-term profitability metrics. The new $30 trillion TAM estimate further amplifies this forward-looking approach, surpassing SpaceX's $28.5 trillion figure.