SpaceX has signed a $6.3 billion AI compute agreement with open-source startup Reflection AI, extending Elon Musk’s Colossus infrastructure strategy and highlighting the rise of AI compute as a standalone business line. The deal positions SpaceX to monetize its high-performance computing capacity amid surging demand for AI training power.

The Reflection contract will run about $150 million per month starting July 1, 2026, and extend through the end of 2029, for a total near $6.3 billion if fully executed. Reflection will tap Nvidia-powered clusters in xAI data centers, making it the latest external tenant on Colossus.

Strategic Partnerships

Reflection joins Alphabet Inc. and Anthropic as major external tenants on the Colossus infrastructure. Previous agreements from Google and Anthropic to use SpaceX’s compute are valued at roughly $30 billion and $45 billion, respectively, and extend to around mid-2029.

These arrangements sit inside Musk’s broader strategy to sell excess Colossus capacity to rival model labs rather than rely solely on internal workloads. By selling high-margin GPU capacity to customers like Anthropic, Google, and now Reflection, SpaceX is turning scarce compute into a core strategic asset.

Contract Details

The following table outlines the key financial terms for SpaceX's major AI compute contracts:

In May, filings showed Anthropic agreed to buy roughly 300 megawatts of AI infrastructure from xAI, effectively taking the entire output of the Colossus 1 site near Memphis through May 2029. Google has separately agreed to pay SpaceX about $920 million per month for compute over 32 months to access roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs plus supporting infrastructure in xAI facilities.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) experienced a 9% single-session drop on June 18, 2026, following reports that bankers are preparing a bond sale of at least $20 billion. This decline came just six days after the company priced the largest IPO in history at $135 per share, raising $75 billion. The stock, which hit an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, pulled back to around $174, though it remains 29% above its IPO price. The volatility stems from a rapid succession of capital events, including a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere and the looming bond sale, raising questions about capital requirements and execution risks.

The Week in Plain Numbers

The market debut was followed by immediate and aggressive capital deployment. On June 12, SPCX closed up 19% at $161.11. By June 16, the company announced it would acquire Anysphere, the parent company of AI coding tool Cursor, for $60 billion in stock. Cursor reportedly had roughly $4 billion in annualized recurring revenue prior to the deal. The stock subsequently pulled back 5.6% on June 17 before the additional 9% drop on June 18 upon news of the bond sale.

Valuation and Analyst Views

The rapid expansion has drawn scrutiny from analysts. Morningstar cut its fair value estimate to $62 following the acquisition, listing SPCX as one of the most expensive stocks in its coverage. At current prices around $174, the stock trades at approximately 3.2 times this estimate, implying potential downside. The firm noted that even at $63 per share, the valuation assumes significant benefit of the doubt. Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld also commented that the stock trades on hopes rather than fundamentals, though he acknowledged the company's visible momentum.

Capital Structure and Commitments

SpaceX is utilizing a multi-instrument approach to capital management. The IPO raised $75 billion in equity, while the Anysphere deal was conducted entirely in stock. The proposed $20 billion bond sale is intended to provide operational flexibility without diluting shareholders or using IPO proceeds. The company faces $25.45 billion in contractual commitments, primarily for cloud capacity, with 95% of those obligations due in 2026 and 2027. Additionally, the company is investing heavily in xAI, orbital data centers, and its commercial launch operations.

Lockup Structure and Float Risks

A key factor in the stock's volatility is the restricted float. Only about 5% of SPCX shares are currently tradable, with the remaining 95% locked up until December 8, 2026. This constrained supply contributes to violent price swings. The lockup structure includes tiered releases tied to performance and earnings. If SPCX closes at or above $175.50 for at least five of ten consecutive trading sessions around Q2 earnings, an additional 10% of locked shares becomes eligible. Furthermore, up to 20% of locked shares can be sold starting two trading days after the Q2 earnings report, expected around September 2. Elon Musk's personal holdings are subject to a separate 366-day lockup expiring June 12, 2027.

Business Fundamentals

Despite the valuation concerns, the underlying business metrics remain strong. Starlink has surpassed 12 million active subscribers, maintaining its position as the only satellite broadband network with global scale. The Falcon 9 rocket boasts a better than 99% success rate. The acquisition of Cursor adds $4 billion in enterprise AI software revenue. Analysts are also watching for the potential commercial payload flights of Starship in the second half of 2026, which could provide a significant cost-per-kilogram advantage.