Analysts call Nvidia undervalued as sovereign AI demand rises
Wedbush and KeyBanc analysts have endorsed Nvidia as undervalued and best-in-class, driven by sovereign AI demand and supply constraints. Jim Cramer highlighted that sovereign AI now accounts for 14% of business, reducing reliance on hyperscalers. Technically, the stock is consolidating below short-term averages but holds above long-term support levels.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Nvidia Corp. stock edged higher in Thursday premarket trading as improving risk appetite lifted technology stocks, with Nasdaq futures rising 1.35% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.83%. The chipmaker remains a focal point of the artificial intelligence investment theme, as analysts and market commentators increasingly point to sovereign AI initiatives, persistent supply constraints, and robust infrastructure spending as key drivers of its next phase of growth.
CNBC's Jim Cramer said on Monday that Nvidia's growing business with sovereign nations could reduce investor concerns about its dependence on a small group of hyperscale customers. He said governments are buying Nvidia chips for domestic AI infrastructure projects and are not focused on quick returns, unlike some commercial buyers. Cramer said sovereign AI already accounts for about 14% of Nvidia's business and could become more important as projects move forward. He said demand from countries including Singapore, India, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia can help lessen Nvidia's reliance on major cloud providers.
Wedbush Securities semiconductor and hardware analyst Matt Bryson told CNBC on Wednesday that Nvidia remains undervalued because it is still the biggest beneficiary of AI demand. He said the broader AI investment cycle remains strong and continues to support demand for companies tied to AI infrastructure. Bryson said Nvidia's products remain supply-constrained, and the company has built strong supply-chain positioning for 2026, 2027, and 2028. He also said server vendors such as Super Micro Computer, Inc are largely shipping Nvidia-based products, which reinforces Nvidia's central role in the AI hardware ecosystem.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh said Nvidia remains his favorite AI chip stock and called it "hands down" the best-in-class player in the sector. He said no major merchant silicon rival is likely to gain meaningful traction against Nvidia soon, and he likes the stock's risk-reward at current levels.
Nvidia is trying to stabilize after its pullback from the May swing high. At $203.01, Nvidia trades below its short-term moving averages. The stock is 6.6% below its 20-day simple moving average of $217.20. It is also 1.4% below its 50-day simple moving average of $205.71. However, the longer-term setup still looks stronger. Nvidia remains 4.3% above its 100-day simple moving average of $194.38. It is also 7.3% above its 200-day simple moving average of $189.02. The 20-day average remains above the 50-day average, and the 50-day average remains above the 200-day average, reflecting the golden cross that formed in June 2025.
Technical Levels
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $203.01 |
| 20-day SMA | $217.20 |
| 50-day SMA | $205.71 |
| 100-day SMA | $194.38 |
| 200-day SMA | $189.02 |
| Key Resistance | $217.00 |
| Key Support | $194.50 |
Nvidia shares were up 1.29% at $203.00 during premarket trading on Thursday. Nvidia stock has gained nearly 8% year to date, lagging the Nasdaq-100 Index's 13% advance and the PHLX Semiconductor Index's 72% surge.
How will the shift toward sovereign AI purchases impact Nvidia's revenue stability compared to its traditional hyperscale customer base?
Can Nvidia maintain its supply-chain positioning through 2028 if competitors begin to gain traction in the merchant silicon market?
What specific catalysts are needed for Nvidia to reclaim its 20-day simple moving average and reverse its recent pullback?






























