U.S. stock futures trend higher early Thursday as investors anticipate a positive start to the final quarter of 2026. Polymarket prediction data reflects an 85% probability that the S&P 500 will open higher on October 1.

Equity futures point to a green open across major benchmarks. Nasdaq 100 futures lead the advance, up 0.86%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.48%, Dow Jones futures gained 0.26%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.42%.

Market drivers and geopolitical context

Traders are monitoring several key factors influencing sentiment:

• Geopolitics and energy: Iran announced receipt of a U.S. response to its proposal aimed at resurrecting the collapsed Gulf ceasefire. This coincides with the withdrawal of the final U.S. troops from Iraq, 23 years after the invasion. Energy prices extended their slide, with Brent crude dropping 1.19% to $96.86 a barrel and WTI crude falling 1.40% to $89.15 a barrel.
• Fed developments: President Donald Trump called for former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign or face a lawsuit over cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. The Fed’s inspector general cited significant project-management deficiencies but found no criminal or administrative misconduct.
• Economic data: Weekly initial jobless claims are due at 8:30 am ET, followed by September’s ISM manufacturing PMI and August’s construction spending data at 10:00 am ET.

Divergence in market breadth

While AI-adjacent stocks helped the Nasdaq Composite post a nearly 3% gain in September, broader market breadth remains exceptionally poor. The Dow Jones ended the month down over 3%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell over 4%.

David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, noted this divergence highlights a severe lack of confidence in U.S. corporates outside the artificial intelligence ecosystem. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note spiked 81 bps in the third quarter, its steepest rate of increase since 2022. Morrison warns that at current levels, investors might begin shifting exposure away from highly valued equities into Treasuries, though momentum in the AI sector is currently keeping that rotation at bay.

Previous session performance

The Sept. 30 Polymarket contract resolved "Down" with $69,097 in total trading volume. On Wednesday, ETFs tracking major indices closed mixed:

Thursday’s earnings docket includes reports from Accenture PLC (NYSE: ACN), Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), and McCormick & Company Inc. (NYSE: MKC).

Conagra Brands Inc (NYSE: CAG) posted better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter, with adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share beating market estimates of 28 cents per share. This corporate update coincided with mixed trading in U.S. equities, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 200 points on Wednesday.

Market performance and sector trends

U.S. stocks traded mixed toward the end of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.42% to 51,135.81, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.86% to 27,028.35. The S&P 500 also gained ground, rising 0.32% to 7,695.23.

Sector performance diverged significantly. Information technology shares jumped 1.2%, whereas consumer staples stocks fell 1.2%. In commodities, crude oil traded up 1.3% to $90.52, and gold rose 0.8% to $4,213.50. Silver increased 0.2% to $61.285, and copper climbed 0.3% to $6.62.

Corporate updates and movers

Several companies saw significant price movements based on specific announcements:

• Capital Bancorp Inc (NASDAQ: CBNK) shares rose 12% to $39.90 following a merger agreement announcement with Peoples Bancorp Inc.
• Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: CNTB) surged 41% to $1.40 after releasing preliminary topline data from its global Phase 2 study evaluating rademikibart.
• FormFactor Inc (NASDAQ: FORM) gained 8% to $147.56 after Deutsche Bank analyst George Brown initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $200 price target.

Conversely, some stocks faced downward pressure:

• Darkiris Inc. (NASDAQ: DKI) dipped 38% to $1.57 after issuing a business update on Cine3.AI global expansion.
• Trulieve Cannabis Corp (NYSE: TRLV) fell 12% to $10.92.
• Rafael Holdings Inc (NYSE: RFL) dropped 37% to $1.27 following topline results from the Pivotal Phase 3 TransportNPC™ Study of Trappsol Cyclo in Niemann-Pick Disease Type C (NPC).

Economic indicators

Recent economic data showed inflation cooling slightly while growth was revised upward. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-over-month, below the 0.4% expectation. Headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% annually, matching July's revised reading and below the 3.7% consensus. Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-over-month against a 0.3% forecast, with the annual rate slowing to 3.0% from 3.3%.

Second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. U.S. private businesses added 90,000 jobs in September, exceeding market estimates of 70,000. Personal income rose 0.2% month-over-month in August, while personal consumption expenditures rose 0.9%. The U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $132.6 billion in August from $118.9 billion the previous month. Crude inventories jumped by 0.922 million barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, contrasting with estimates of a 0.3 million-barrel draw.

Global market reaction

European shares were lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 declining 0.3%. Spain's IBEX 35 Index fell 0.2%, London's FTSE 100 dropped 0.2%, Germany's DAX fell 0.6%, and France's CAC 40 dipped 0.8%. Asian markets closed mostly higher, led by Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping 1.94%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.37%, China's SSE Composite Index rose 0.31%, while India's BSE Sensex fell 0.07%.

What the numbers show

The divergence between Conagra's strong operational beat and the broader consumer staples sector decline highlights company-specific resilience amidst sector-wide weakness. While the sector fell 1.2%, Conagra's adjusted EPS exceeded estimates by 13 cents, suggesting that specific corporate execution can decouple from macro sector sentiment in the short term.