Global clean energy investment reached a record $2.1 trillion in 2025, yet greenhouse gas emissions are only plateauing. Renewables supplied 99% of the growth in global electricity generation, but this covered just 40% of the rise in total global energy demand.

The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) published its Energy Transition Monitor 2026 on Sept. 2, 2026, highlighting a divergence between rapid clean power deployment and stagnant emissions. While solar, batteries, and electric vehicles outperformed forecasts, overall demand for both fossil and clean energy expanded simultaneously. This growth was driven by data centres, higher cooling needs, and heavy industry.

What the Numbers Show

The data reveals a structural mismatch between supply growth and final consumption. Although renewables accounted for nearly all new electricity generation, electricity constitutes only one-fifth of total final energy use. Consequently, the surge in clean power addressed less than half of the incremental energy demand, leaving fossil fuels to supply the remaining 60%. This dynamic explains why emissions are not falling despite record capital flows into green technology.

A Two-Speed Transition

The report identifies a bifurcation in abatement progress:

• 60% of global emissions: Primarily from power generation and road transport, these sectors are being addressed by clean electrification at little or no extra cost.
• 40% of global emissions: Sourced from aviation, shipping, heavy industry, and agriculture, these areas require solutions with a green cost premium or those at early commercial stages.

Grid capacity remains a critical bottleneck. In Europe, approximately 375 GW of renewables and 455 GW of battery storage are stuck in connection queues. In the United States, roughly 2,300 GW await grid connection. China curtailed nearly 10% of its wind and solar output in the first half of 2026 due to grid constraints.

Regional Divergences

Progress varies significantly across major economies:

China supplies 83% of the world’s renewable-energy equipment and installed more than half of global wind and solar capacity. In contrast, the US saw federal actions cancel 21 GW of clean energy since January 2025, while fossil capacity additions rose sharply. India records the fastest electricity demand growth among major economies at 6.4% per year, though new clean capacity is absorbed by this demand rather than displacing coal.

Unaddressed Levers

Four key levers for emissions reduction remain largely unaddressed: coal use, methane emissions, deforestation, and the scale-up of carbon removals. Adair Turner, Co-Chair of ETC, noted that deployment speed alone will not cut emissions without removing grid bottlenecks and securing buyer commitments for clean industrial products.