US Leading Economic Index rises 0.1% in May, driven by financial components
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US increased by 0.1% in May 2026 to 99.3, driven by financial components like stock prices and interest rate spreads. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.2% to 114.6, while the Lagging Economic Index dipped by 0.1% to 120.5. The Conference Board projects 1.8% GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US increased by 0.1% in May 2026 to 99.3 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in April. The rise was fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, particularly stock prices and the interest rate spread. Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI is down 0.3% over the six months between November 2025 and May 2026, a smaller rate of decline than the 1.3% contraction over the previous six months.
"The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in May 2026 to 114.6 (2016=100), after a marginal increase of 0.1% in April. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.6% over the six months between November 2025 and May 2026, an improvement from its growth of 0.2% over the previous six months. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in May.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US dipped by 0.1% to 120.5 (2016=100) in May 2026, after a 0.5% increase in April. However, the LAG's six-month change was firmly in positive territory at 0.9% growth between November 2025 and May 2026, up from being flat over the previous six months.
The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% year-on-year GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025. The next release is scheduled for Monday, July 20, 2026, at 10 A.M. ET.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
| Index | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | 6-Month Change (Nov to May) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading Index | 99.0 | 99.2 | 99.3 | -0.3% |
| Percent Change | -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| Diffusion | 40.0 | 60.0 | 65.0 | 70.0 |
| Coincident Index | 114.3 | 114.4 | 114.6 | 0.6% |
| Percent Change | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Diffusion | 37.5 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 75.0 |
| Lagging Index | 120.0 | 120.6 | 120.5 | 0.9% |
| Percent Change | 0.3% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 0.9% |
| Diffusion | 64.3 | 78.6 | 28.6 | 50.0 |
Indexes equal 100 in 2016. Source: The Conference Board.
How might the reliance on financial components to drive the LEI impact the index's reliability if market volatility increases?
What policy measures could be implemented to address the persistent weakness in consumer expectations?
Is the recent deceleration in the LEI's six-month contraction a signal of a sustainable economic recovery?
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