Consumers are making more deliberate choices about what stays in their grocery baskets as rising costs, evolving eating habits and broader economic uncertainty influence purchasing decisions, according to new research released by RELEX Solutions. The RELEX State of Supply Chain Consumer Pulse survey of 1,000 consumers across the U.S. and U.K. found that 61% have changed how much food they purchase due to higher grocery prices. This shift creates a complex demand environment for retailers and manufacturers as spending does not reduce uniformly across categories.

Consumer Spending Priorities

The survey indicates that consumers are making specific tradeoffs based on price, value and health priorities. While 68% say fresh groceries remain worth paying more for and 49% say the same for household essentials, discretionary categories are seeing cuts. Nearly half (46%) have cut back on snacks and junk food, 39% have reduced beef purchases and 34% have cut back on alcohol.

Economic Concerns and Shopping Habits

Broader economic concerns continue to influence purchasing behavior, with 71% of consumers concerned that tariffs, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions and other global events will continue increasing the cost of everyday goods over the next six months. These concerns are driving specific shopping adjustments. More than half (54%) say lower prices are the single most important action retailers can take to help manage rising costs. Consequently, 51% stock up during promotions, 47% have switched to private-label products, 40% shop at discount retailers more often and 38% visit multiple stores to find the best prices.

Supply Chain Implications

The consumer findings align with trends identified in RELEX's 2026 State of Supply Chain report, which found organizations face significant challenges related to inflation, tariffs, demand volatility and changing consumer preferences. According to the report, 86% of organizations report being impacted by tariffs and trade policy changes, while 40% cite customer demand fluctuations as a major disruption. Additionally, 34% say demand volatility is complicating planning decisions and 30% of retailers say adapting to changing consumer demand is a significant challenge.

"For retailers and manufacturers, the biggest risk is assuming consumers are responding to rising costs in the same way," said Laurence Brenig-Jones, VP Product, Platform, RELEX Solutions. "Consumers are making highly individualized decisions based on price, health goals, value and household priorities. What's interesting is that while shoppers are pulling back in some categories, they continue to prioritize fresh groceries."

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio on Wednesday warned that the United States is entering a "particularly risky period" marked by rising debt pressures and political uncertainty leading into the 2026–2028 election cycle. Dalio stated that the U.S. is currently "on the brink" as fiscal and political pressures intensify, creating a threatening monetary situation.

In a post on X, Dalio highlighted a significant imbalance in government finances, noting that the U.S. government currently spends $7 trillion while only taking in approximately $5 trillion. This results in a 40% overspending gap, which Dalio suggested could become harder to finance if investor appetite for debt continues to wane.

US Debt Pressure Rises As Demand Weakens

Dalio pointed out that "the demand for that debt is falling" due to standard supply-demand dynamics and concerns among holders about potential sanctions and geopolitical risk. He suggested that financing persistent deficits could become more difficult if fewer investors are willing to absorb rising debt issuance at current prices, potentially pushing borrowing costs higher.

Broader Economic Concerns

Separately, President Donald Trump, economist Steve Hanke and Upgrade CEO Renaud Laplanche pointed to growing financial pressure across the U.S. economy, spanning federal debt, global energy risks and household borrowing. Trump defended the rising national debt, arguing the U.S. remained "way under-levered" when measured against its total assets and compared government borrowing to real estate leverage.

Hanke warned that tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz had created a "massive supply-side shock," potentially reducing global oil supply and raising costs across key industries. He said the disruption exposed weaknesses in an already strained U.S. financial position. Laplanche noted that U.S. credit card debt had reached about $1.3 trillion, driven by everyday spending and higher interest rates that made repayment harder.