US device shipments fall 2.2% in 2026, recover by 2030

Daniel Research Group (DRG) forecasts a 2.2% decline in United States personal device shipments to 238 million units in 2026, driven by higher prices and slower replacement rates. The report, released on June 9, 2026, projects a recovery starting in 2027, with total shipments reaching 255 million units by 2030. The long-term growth rate is expected to remain under 1% annually.

The decline in 2026 is attributed to a global memory chip shortage and tariff-related cost increases, pushing device prices up by 10-15%. Higher prices lead to lower penetration rates, slower replacement cycles, and reduced device density. Smartphones are projected to take the biggest hit, falling 5.2% to 126.9 million units. PCs are expected to decline modestly by 0.7% to 68.7 million units, supported by businesses completing Windows 10 to 11 upgrades. Tablets are the exception, forecast to rise 8.2% to 38.8 million units.

Recovery in 2027 will be driven by a large installed base of aging devices requiring replacement. Growing US households and new AI use cases in PCs and phones are expected to accelerate upgrades. DRG forecasts device demand using four variables: Total Available Market, Penetration Percent, Density, and Replacement Rate.

United States Personal Device Unit Shipments (Millions)

Category	Form Factor	2025	2026	'26 AGR	2030	CAGR '25-'30
Desktop PCs	Desktop PC	15.1	13.9	-7.8%	14.2	-1.2%
Mobile PCs	Traditional	47.1	48.1	2.0%	51.2	1.7%
	Convertible	7.0	6.8	-3.4%	6.7	-0.9%
Total PCs		69.2	68.7	-0.7%	72.1	0.8%
Tablets	Detachable	21.0	22.9	8.7%	26.0	4.3%
	Slate	14.9	16.0	7.4%	14.7	-0.3%
Total Tablets		35.9	38.8	8.2%	40.6	2.5%
Total PCs & Tablets		105.1	107.6	2.4%	112.7
Mobile Phones	Standard	4.3	3.6	-17.5%	3.7	-2.9%
	Smartphone	133.9	126.9	-5.2%	138.5	0.7%
Total Phones		138.2	130.5	-5.6%	142.2	0.6%
TOTAL DEVICES		243.3	238.0	-2.2%	255.0	0.9%

The report covers PCs, tablets, and smartphones by product, form factor, and segment. DRG is a Massachusetts-based technology market research and forecasting firm founded in 1984.

Illinois Governor JB Pritzker attributed rising inflation to former President Donald Trump's tariffs and Republican policies, arguing that these federal actions have increased costs for American families. Pritzker stated that Americans are feeling the pain from tariffs and congressional Republicans cutting assistance programs, leading to higher prices at grocery stores, gas pumps, and pharmacies.

Federal Policy and State Response

In a video message posted on X on June 8, 2026, Pritzker criticized the federal approach, noting that inflation is worse than when Trump took office. He specifically cited Trump's tariffs and his "war of choice in Iran" as drivers of increased costs. Pritzker highlighted that Illinois has countered these trends with state-level interventions, including passing a balanced budget aimed at lowering costs in housing, health care, and education.

The Illinois legislature worked with the Governor to implement several relief measures. These efforts include curbing hidden fees, pausing a planned gas tax increase, eliminating the sales tax on back-to-school items, and regulating insurance pricing.

Economic Warnings on Inflation

Economist Peter Schiff commented on the situation, suggesting that the Iran conflict serves as a "perfect scapegoat" for rising prices and could be used to explain continued inflation ahead of elections. The Iran-Israel conflict has escalated with missile strikes and retaliatory attacks, raising concerns about higher oil prices and broader economic fallout.

Separately, Moody's economist Mark Zandi warned that the U.S. economy is growing below its potential. He cited risks from rising unemployment, persistent inflation, and slowing growth, noting that weaker expansion is being exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs linked to the conflict.