The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) decreased to 107.01 in May, down from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April. The ETI serves as a leading composite index for payroll employment, where increases suggest employment growth and decreases indicate potential declines. Despite the monthly dip, the index remains up 2.1 points compared to six months ago, signaling continued resilience in the labor market.

May's payroll employment rose by 172,000, yet the forward-looking ETI declined slightly. Five of the eight components contributed negatively to the index, highlighting potential downside risks. The primary drag came from the share of small firms reporting jobs are 'not able to be filled right now', which dropped to 29% in May from 34% in April, marking the lowest level since May 2020.

Job Openings increased sharply to above 7.6 million in April, driven by an idiosyncratic movement in the professional and business service industry that is not expected to continue. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 214,800 in May, up from a historically low level in April but still lower than one year ago. Real manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production recorded little change, contributing marginally to the decline.

Positive contributions included a decrease in the share of involuntary part-time workers to 17.4% in May from 17.9% in April. The share of consumers reporting 'jobs are hard to get' declined for a second consecutive month to 18.6% in May from 19.4% in April. Employment in the temporary help services industry rose again, contributing positively to the ETI for all five months of 2026, though the magnitude was smaller in May.

The negative contributions to May's ETI came from the Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Job Openings, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production. Positive contributions came from the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get', and the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry.

ETI Components and Data Sources

The eight leading indicators aggregated into the ETI include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Publication Schedule

Wall Street faced a volatile week as the Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst drop since April 2025's tariff shock, ending a nine-week winning streak for the S&P 500. The selloff was driven by disappointing guidance from Broadcom Inc. and hotter-than-expected jobs data, which reignited fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The risk sentiment shift also triggered a sharp decline in digital assets, with Bitcoin experiencing its worst weekly performance since the FTX collapse.

Broadcom guidance disappoints

Broadcom Inc. reported earnings that beat expectations, with next-quarter sales guided to $29.4 billion against a consensus of $28.6 billion. However, CEO Hock Tan kept the full-year AI semiconductor guidance unchanged at "in excess of $100 billion." This conservative outlook failed to meet sky-high investor expectations, leading to a 12.6% drop in the stock on Thursday and a further decline of over 7% on Friday. The semiconductor sector, tracked by the iShares Semiconductor ETF, tumbled more than 10% over the two days, marking its worst drop since April 2025.

Economic data fuels rate hike fears

The May jobs report showed payrolls rising by 172,000, significantly above the consensus of 85,000, while revisions for March and April added a combined 93,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Coupled with April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—the robust labor market data led money markets to almost fully price in a rate hike by the end of the year.

Crypto markets face bloodbath

The selloff extended to digital assets, with Bitcoin plunging below $60,000, marking a 17% weekly drop. This was the cryptocurrency's worst performance since November 2022, when the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX roiled markets. Strategy Inc., the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, dropped approximately 25% for the week. Chairman Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million between May 26 and 31, his first sale since December 2022.

Ford recalls SUVs amid market volatility

Ford Motor Co. shed 15% after a four-week winning streak, marking one of its worst weeks in years. The decline followed an announcement recalling nearly 420,000 Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs from model years 2018 to 2022 due to a seat belt pretensioner defect. The defect can lock the belt during a crash, increasing the risk of injury. The recall includes approximately 14,000 vehicles in Canada.