The launch of Apple Inc's iPhone may have contributed significantly to America's declining birth rate, according to a new working paper published earlier this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The study found that smartphone adoption may explain a meaningful share of the sharp drop in U.S. fertility over the past two decades, with researchers identifying a strong correlation between device access and lower birth rates.

Researchers analyzed birth trends following the iPhone's launch in June 2007, when AT&T Inc held exclusive U.S. distribution rights until February 2011. That exclusivity allowed economists to compare areas with early iPhone access against regions with limited access, creating what they described as a natural experiment. The findings were notable, with regions that had greater access to the device seeing birth rates fall 4.5% to 8% more among ages 15 to 19 and 3.2% to 6.6% more among ages 20 to 24 within the first four years of release.

Impact on Demographics

The decline in fertility was observed across various age groups, though it was steepest among younger Americans. Even after adjusting for factors such as housing prices and urbanization, researchers still found a strong relationship between higher iPhone adoption and lower fertility. The table below summarizes the percentage decline in birth rates in areas with greater iPhone access compared to those with limited access.

Study coauthor Caitlin K. Myers told Fortune that births fell much faster in places where consumers could access the iPhone earlier. "We had a baby-less recovery," Myers said, referring to the years after the 2008 financial crisis. "The economy recovered, and births didn't."

Social and Economic Factors

The researchers suggested that the trend may reflect broader behavioral shifts tied to smartphone use, including less in-person social interaction, reduced relationship formation and rising digital dependence. Myers expressed concern that the decline could reflect deeper social issues, such as increased depression and isolation due to excessive screen time. These concerns align with broader warnings about social disconnection in the digital era from business leaders like Emma Grede, co-founder of Skims.

Economic pressures may also be playing a major role. U.S. birth rates have fallen roughly 30% since before the 2008 financial crisis, even as financial markets climbed to near-record highs. Some analysts argue rising asset prices, housing costs and childcare expenses have widened the gap between wealth owners and younger households trying to build families.

Long-term Consequences

Falling fertility carries long-term economic consequences, including shrinking the future labor force, weakening consumer spending and leaving fewer workers supporting a growing retiree population. This increases pressure on programs such as Social Security and Medicare. The latest annual report from the Social Security Board of Trustees, released in June 2026, lowered its long-term U.S. fertility assumption to 1.75 births per woman, down from 1.9 previously. Myers emphasized that more research is needed before drawing sweeping conclusions but believes the findings raise important questions about how technology may be reshaping social connection, family formation and long-term economic health.

The opening of the $4.7 billion Gordie Howe International Bridge, connecting Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, has been delayed by the U.S. and Canada. The Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority announced that both nations agreed to postpone the opening, initially planned for Friday, to take the necessary time to resolve outstanding issues. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed the delay was at the request of the Trump administration, emphasizing the need to address matters for a project intended to serve both countries for decades.

Talks regarding the bridge opening are being led by U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The delay occurs amid volatile trade relations, as President Donald Trump previously suggested he could block the bridge's opening. Trump cited Canada's refusal to stock certain U.S. alcoholic beverages, tariffs on American dairy products, and its trade negotiations with China as reasons for his stance.

Trade Policy Context

The bridge delay coincides with broader trade disputes. Canada's Liberal government recently announced a new policy under the Online Streaming Act, potentially reducing contributions from American streaming companies like Netflix Inc., Amazon.com's Prime, and The Walt Disney Company's Disney+ to support Canadian TV production. Critics view this as a concession in the ongoing trade war with the U.S.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged the president to finalize a deal quickly. However, Trump expressed doubts about renewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), citing trade deficits. During a press briefing on Wednesday, Trump stated, "We don't need anything that Canada has."

Energy Sector Data

GasBuddy Analyst Patrick De Haan countered Trump's assertion regarding the lack of need for Canadian goods, highlighting the energy sector's reliance on imports. De Haan provided data illustrating the dependency on Canadian oil:

The analyst questioned the concept of "energy independence" given these figures, emphasizing Canada's role as a key supplier. The USMCA is currently slated for renegotiation on July 1, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicating that tariffs on Mexico's auto and steel sectors would remain in effect despite the talks.